Analyst: Election results spell ‘trouble’ for ANC
Only days after the national elections were concluded, political parties have already set their sights on the 2016 local government elections.
However, voting patterns in this year’s elections indicate that the battle for South Africa’s metropolitan municipalities will be tougher.
Support for the ANC in Gauteng, especially in the key regions of Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, only managing 52.28 percent, 50.96 percent and 49.31 percent respectively.
Although the results allowed the party to hold onto these municipalities, the ANC saw a dramatic drop in votes of over 10 percent in each.
Daryl Glaser, head of political studies at Wits University, said the national and provincial election results were an indication of the “trouble the ANC might face” in the next local government elections.
According to Glaser, during local government elections voters were often prepared to take more risks with smaller parties and prioritised a party’s managerial competence.
Gauteng was on the verge of “real politics” where political parties could no longer be complacent about their positions and would be forced to contemplate coalitions, he said.
“The local elections could result in coalitions either that the ANC is forced into or that it is excluded from. Tshwane metro, for example, is on the verge of a coalition as the ANC’s support had dropped to 49 percent.”
Urban areas were difficult to control by the ruling party as homogeneously governed, due to the diversity of these areas.
He added that voters in urban areas tend to have greater access to information and were more educated, which was impacting the way they vote.
According to political analyst Mzoxolo Mpolase, part of the DA’s strategy was to target the metro and the party would have the most to gain from the ANC’s dwindling support.
However, he said that while voters seemed more susceptible to the DA’s personalised campaigning in the general elections, the ANC was likely to restructure its campaigning for the local government elections – which could bolster voter support.
However, he said in addition to capitalising on media coverage in its campaigning, the ANC also needed to focus on improving its governance by appointing competent councillors and focusing largely on service delivery.
Glaser said the ANC should also re-look its implementation of the Employment Equity Act, which aims to apply national quotas to provinces – putting coloureds in the Western Cape and Indians in KwaZulu-Natal at a disadvantage.
According to Glaser, the ANC needed to reach out to these groups, whose votes it was lacking.
