Elections: Polls show increased DA, EFF support

Five weeks to go.

The local government elections are within sight and political parties are making use of the remaining weeks to campaign across the country. But in a recent Ipsos poll for eNCA, it appears the outcome of elections could spell major change for three of South Africa’s metropolitan municipalities, including the City of Johannesburg (CoJ).

The poll showed in Nelson Mandela Bay and in the City of Tshwane respondents were more likely to vote for the DA than the ANC on 3 August with increased support for the EFF as well. In CoJ two percentage points of respondents said they would rather vote for the ANC than the DA.

Professor Daryl Glaser Head of Department of Political Studies at the University of the Witwatersrand said he believes the ANC will see a further weakening of its position in Joburg but it’ll probably narrowly hold onto overall control.

“Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay might fall, though,”he said.

He said that if the DA were to run CoJ, it would have to be part of a coalition and that only a coalition can keep the ANC out, ‘because the ANC will remain the biggest single party in most councils outside the Western Cape’.

Glaser also believes a coalition could be possible.

“Other parties can choose to combine their votes in electing a particular mayor and council executive based on an agreed programme. Of course, if parties are very ideologically divergent they might struggle to agree on leaders or programmes,” Glaser explained.

But he added that coalition governments might prove unstable and an ANC in opposition will seek to maximise the said instability.

On the accuracy of the Ipsos polls, Glaser said even though Ipsos is a respected organisation with a decent record in recent elections, no polling organisation can ever offer guaranteed accuracy

Details: University of the Witwatersrand on 011 717 1000.

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