‘Above normal’ summer rainfall predicted for Limpopo

Widespread rainfall is on the cards for Limpopo between December 2022 and February 2023 as the third consecutive La Niña raises fears of potential crop damage.

POLOKWANE – An unprecedented third consecutive La Niña phenomenon is expected to bring wet and rainy conditions during the summer months.

According to National Geographic, La Niña is a climate pattern that describes the cooling of surface ocean waters along the tropical west coast of South America. It is considered to be the counterpart to El Nino, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean.

Both El Niño and La Niña affect patterns of rainfall, atmospheric pressure and global atmospheric circulation and it is associated with rainier-than-normal conditions over southeastern Africa and northern Brazil.

‘Above-normal’ rainfall has been predicted for South Africa until at least February 2023 for summer rainfall areas, according to Storm Report SA.

So what does this mean for Limpopo?

There is a probability for widespread rainfall from December to February 2023 with 50% above average rainfall on the cards, while the system will dissipate come February 2023 with models suggesting 40-45% above average rainfall.

An IRI multi-model probability forecast for precipitation for November-December-January 2023, issued August 2022

An IRI multi-model probability forecast for precipitation for December-January-February 2023, issued August 2022

“La Niña is likely to persist until mid-summer 2022-23 with a 60% probability, which would be the first triple-dip event of the 21st century,” Storm Report SA’s forecast read.

This La Niña system raises fears of potential crop damage and farmers are urged to prepare for a third consecutive high-rainfall season, which could lead to flooding, waterlogged lands, and crop damage.

Christo van der Rheede, executive director of Agri SA told the Zululand Observer that farmers needed to take advantage of the predicted wet weather conditions.

“We need to remember that climate forecasts remain just that – a forecast. [But] it’s a good indication and farmers need to use this as a basis when planning for the coming season. See the good rainfall as an opportunity to plant [crops]. [During] the previous season there were many doomsday speculators who said the maize crop would fail due to too much water. Yet, we were able to harvest 15 million tons of maize. Our farmers have the necessary knowledge. They should use that and make informed decisions,” he said.