Dry, warm winter predicted for Limpopo
The milder winter should help Eskom keep the lights on during the season of peak household demand.
POLOKWANE – The South African Weather Service (SAWS) multi-model rainfall forecast accurately indicated mostly below-normal rainfall over most of the country during Apr-May-June (AMJ) and indicates no change for May-Jun-Jul (MJJ) and Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA). For some parts of KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and Free State for AMJ above-normal rainfall is, however expected.
The SAWS explains that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a strong El Niño state, which is predicted to rapidly decline into a neutral state by early winter. However, as the summer has ended, the service expects a minimal influence from the current El Niño event that is still in effect.
“We are now in the transition from summer to autumn. This is also the time of the year when the occurrence of cut-off low weather systems (from March to May) climatologically has the highest frequency of occurrence and minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.”
According to SAWS Climate Watch, below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures are expected for most parts of the country across the seasons, with exception to parts of KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and Free State during AMJ.
“If anything, ending an El Niño cycle would mean a normal transition into a winter season. Such normal weather conditions would favour the drying up of mature crops in the summer crop-growing regions, as well as improved harvesting conditions. It would also mean normal to favourable weather conditions for the winter crop-growing regions,” the SAWS reckons.
“The anticipated below-normal rainfall coupled with above-normal temperatures are likely to increase water losses and reduce water storage levels through evapotranspiration and drought, among other factors, particularly in parts of the North West, Free State and Limpopo where a number of settlements are experiencing ongoing drought,” Climate Watch says.
On a brighter note, the milder winter should help Eskom to keep the lights on during the season of peak household demand and means South Africans won’t have to cough up so much for alternative sources of energy.
The chairperson of TLU SA Northern Region, Henk van de Graaf predicts a dry warmer winter for the larger part of Limpopo.
“The summer is not finally over yet and the rain stays away. It is the first time in years that we did not really have any rain by May 1 and if we have a downpour, the land is bone dry within two days again,” De Graaf reckons and points out that ground water levels are low already and winter has not even started yet.
According to De Graaf, farmers will also face the threat of veld fires during a dry winter.
“An advantage is, however, that the vegetation is not so dense if there was no rain and fires could be contained easier,” he added.
Farmers are always positive and will adapt to circumstances.
“Some prefer rain early in the season and others later and have to deal with natural challenges like parasites that flourish when it rains” he explained.
