URC final – why the Bulls should be the favourites

The outcome of rugby finals in any championship is usually determined by how the two teams handle a few important aspects of the game on the day.

Most men with experience of these types of matches agree on one important thing – don’t dramatically change your familiar game plan or suddenly try strange new tricks on the day of the finals. Stick to what you know and do the basics as well as possible.

A few more aspects go along with this, such as to be accurate and focused on defence and to maintain extreme discipline for the entire duration of the game.  Finally, it is important in a final to thoroughly use every possible opportunity that is created to score points.

Only when a team accepts and maintains these few aspects as non-negotiable can it begin to focus on other plans.

External factors that can play a role are the circumstances surrounding the match, such as the field and stadium where it takes place, the role of the spectators and the weather.

In this regard, the Bulls have a big advantage on Saturday. Several stars of the past have testified how players can “draw” energy from the encouragement of the crowd, especially if Loftus Versfeld is packed to the rafters.

As for the weather, the familiar high-veld altitude and resulting thinner air will no doubt also play a role, especially if the pace of the match is high throughout.

Most analysts who must determine which team should be the favourite in a final will of course also take into account the teams’ performances over the course of the season.

It is probably logical that the team that performed better during the season should have a slight psychological advantage.

In this respect, the Bulls are certainly better off. Although both teams each won 13 times and lost 5 times in the league phase, the Bulls were the more impressive of the two.

Last Captains Run of the VURC season 🔥👀 @Vodacom #URC @URCOfficial_RSA pic.twitter.com/ww0NyktLTL

— Official Blue Bulls (@BlueBullsRugby) June 21, 2024

This is evidenced by the fact that, of all 16 participating teams, Jake White’s men scored the most points throughout the season, finished with the biggest positive points difference on the log and scored the most tries in the league phase of the season.

From a statistical point of view, the Bulls must therefore be the favourite to be the new URC champion by eight o’clock on Saturday evening and, depending on how and in which way this information is conveyed, it would be ridiculous to accuse Bulls supporters of arrogance.

Of course anything is possible in a final. For example, a red card or untimely yellow card/s can change the course of the game. If it’s a tight battle and the scores are close, the bounce of the ball can even play a role. Of this, the Bulls supporters who can remember Currie Cup finals such as those of 1990 and 2005 are all too aware.

On paper, however, when the two teams are compared man-for-man, the Bulls look like the stronger team. Then there are the Bulls’ season statistics which are better, as well as all the factors surrounding home field advantage.

There is no doubt that Franco Smith’s men from Scotland will come up with a huge effort. Smith and his management colleagues will also certainly hold a few cards up their sleeve leading up to the action.

However, the statistics are on the home team’s side and the chances are therefore high that the young Ruan Nortjé and his mates will add a URC title on Saturday to the three SuperRugby titles and 25 Currie Cup titles that the union already boasts.

The Bulls have been boosted by the return of Kurt-Lee Arendse for the final against the Glasgow Warriors at a sold-out Loftus Versfeld on Saturday.

Bulls coach Jake White named Arendse in his starting XV, with the Springbok winger returning after surgery for a fractured cheekbone which he sustained in the quarter-final against Benetton.

The return of Arendse is a big boost for the team after the loss of fullback Willie le Roux, who left the field in the semi-final against Leinster following a head and neck injury and who according to medical protocols cannot be available for this Grand Final. Devon Williams will run out at fullback in the only other change to the starting XV.

BULLS STARTING XV: 1. Gerhard Steenekamp, 2. Johan Grobbelaar, 3. Wilco Louw, 4. Ruan Vermaak, 5. Ruan Nortje (c), 6. Marco van Staden, 7. Elrigh Louw, 8. Cameron Hanekom, 9. Embrose Papier, 10. Johan Goosen, 11. Kurt-Lee Arendse, 12. Harold Vorster, 13. David Kriel, 14. Sergeal Petersen, 15. Devon Williams. Replacements: 16. Akker van der Merwe, 17. Simphiwe Matanzima, 18. Francois Klopper, 19. Reinhardt Ludwig, 20. Nizaam Carr, 21. Zak Burger, 22. Chris Smith, 23. Cornel Smit

Glasgow Warriors: 15 Josh McKay, 14 Sebastian Cancelliere, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Kyle Steyn (captain), 10 Tom Jordan, 9 George Horne, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Johnny Matthews, 1 Jamie Bhatti.
Replacements: 16 George Turner, 17 Nathan McBeth, 18 Oli Kebble, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Euan Ferrie, 21 Henco Venter, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Duncan Weir.

Kick-off: 18.00 (16.00 GMT; 17.00 IRE & UK time)
Referee: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
Assistant referees: Frank Murphy (Ireland) and Craig Evans (Wales)
TMO: Matteo Liperini (Italy)

WHAT A BLAST! 💥

The @Vodacom RED Suite was ROCKING like a rolling maul at an epic Vodacom #URC semi-final between the Vodacom Bulls and Leinster at Loftus.

Tap below and check out our Semi-Sweet Suite Sizzler of a Saturday!

— Official Blue Bulls (@BlueBullsRugby) June 19, 2024

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