Flu season to continue until September – experts
This year's colds and flu season could have us in its grip for longer, experts warn.
The colds and flu season typically vary in timing, severity and duration from one season to the next, but according to experts, we might be in for a longer spell.
Nicole Jennings, spokesperson for Pharma Dynamics – a leading provider of colds and flu medication in the country – says labs across the country started to see an uptick in positive colds and flu tests since the last week in May – two weeks later than in the 2016 season.
“The colds and flu season generally peaks between six and nine weeks after it started, but this year it spiked early, in the week starting 26 June.
Often when this occurs, it’s not uncommon to see a later, second peak in August due to a change in circulating strains, so consumers should keep up their immune-boosting supplementation to ward off nasty bugs. Over the past 33 years the average duration of the colds and flu season has been 12 weeks, but it could have us in its grip for as long as 18 weeks, which takes us well into September,” she warns.
There has also been a lot of speculation about the likely impact of global warming on the colds and flu season.
Jennings points out that it was once thought that global warming could result in fewer deaths caused by respiratory infections during the colder months of the year, but the most recent research by Arizona State University found a significant association between warm winters and severe colds and flu cases.
Based on current weather models, SA’s winters are in fact getting warmer by 1 to 2°C compared to a few decades ago. The most northern provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal have been experiencing temperature increases well above that in winter.
According to Jennings, it’s difficult to pinpoint the provinces hardest hit by flu this season since the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) has differing numbers of surveillance sites per province and is therefore unable to calculate attack rates per region as results will be skewed. However, she describes this year’s colds and flu season as moderate.
Another complication is monitoring cold strains as there are more than 100 viruses that could cause a so-called cold. Jennings says even the most common cold virus, the rhinovirus, has more than a hundred different strains.
“Each season there are usually 20 to 30 different types of rhinoviruses circulating in one geographic area, and it’s interesting to note that only about 10 per cent of those will show up again the following year, which makes developing a vaccine for the common cold extremely difficult.
“However, influenza is a lot easier to monitor since there are only about three strains each season. The most predominant flu strain this year has been influenza A (H3N2), which was detected in 87 per cent of patients with a positive influenza result. The dominant H3N2 strain is the variety that typically cause more severe disease.
“Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09, known as swine flu, was the second most prevalent this season. The virus emerged in 2009 and caused severe illness among children and adults alike, but was only detected in 8 per cent of patients. Influenza B – a type of flu that presents symptoms similar to influenza A – accounted for the rest. While there were many reports of severe flu symptoms, the overall flu season has been mild.
“To date there has also not been a noticeable difference in the annual increase in patients with pneumonia and influenza, or deaths related to upper respiratory diseases in the surveillance of hospitalised and out-patients,” remarks Jennings.
Many relied on OTC colds and flu medication to help them recover. More than 4 000 000 units of colds and flu treatments were sold over the winter period – almost four per cent more than last year.
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