Idai, Kenneth and deadly flash floods in SA – Is #ClimateChange to blame?

Accurately forecasting weather conditions is notoriously difficult, but the predictions regarding global warming all over the world paint an absolutely horrifying picture: devastating flash-floods, extreme and deadly heatwaves, massive desertification, food and water insecurity, rising sea levels, environmental destruction and even geopolitical conflicts are realities future generations might have to deal with.

#CycloneKenneth is the strongest tropical storm ever to hit Africa. Absolutely devastating for the people of Mozambique, just weeks after Cyclone Idai. Images from @Ventuskycom. pic.twitter.com/FV8Ec5VzQJ

— Callum Munday (@cal_munday) April 25, 2019

Where is SA at the moment?

Without reverting to exaggeration, current evidence suggests that SA will by no means escape these potential calamities.

Climate data collected by reputable organisations over the past five decades tell a story of a country that’s experiencing temperature increases double that of the world average.

And whereas this past data doesn’t indicate as dramatic a change in rainfall, studies published by the government show that flash floods, drought and variations in rainfall patterns should be anticipated and planned for.

That is, continued extreme weather may be on the horizon, even in the near term.

In SA, the southern interior has seen an increase in rainfall over the past decades, mainly occurring in the summer months (i.e. during the rainy season).

Conversely, areas in the northern parts of Limpopo have been getting drier with less rainfall in the previously wetter autumn months.

Unfortunately, South Africa’s missing out on the effects of El Nino since 1992 is now also at an end.

In fact, the above average rainfall over the past two decades has limited SA’s exposure to the drought conditions that could have resulted from this troubling weather phenomenon; consequently, until 2014, SA was more prone to severe weather conditions that included floods and storms than pervasive dry weather.

Of course, 2015/16 brought home the fact that without reliable rainfall, food security is especially endangered.

Once again, however, we see the reverse is true, too: lives were lost during Idai, the recent severe flooding in KZN, and now, #CycloneKenneth.

What’s to come?

• Both southern and northern Africa are predicted to become markedly drier over the next decades, while it is likely that eastern and tropical Africa will become considerably wetter.

• The average surface temperature of the continent is also set to increase at a rate 1.5-2.0 times that of the world average.

• Given the changes in rainfall patterns, this could not only limit Africa’s ability to adapt timeously to these new conditions, but extreme and destructive weather may also cost Africa dearly in a number of ways.

• Specifically, and despite the increase in generally drier and hotter conditions, intense periods of rainfall will possibly occur along South Africa’s eastern coastline and along the eastern escarpment – resulting in large scale flash floods.

• Additionally, the north eastern parts of the country may also be subject to heavy thunderstorms that will similarly result in dangerous floods.

• The north western regions of the country will, by contrast, become increasingly inhospitable due to a turn towards even more pronounced arid conditions.