The Fall armyworm recently invaded Africa, devastating grain crops and thereby threatened food security.

Entomologists of the North-West University’s Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management’s Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Research Group developed a temperature-based development model that accurately predicted the global spread and establishment of this pest.

This model provides early warning of high-risk areas of establishment of the pest. The model, published during June 2018 in the CSIRO journal Pest Geography, predicted the Indian sub-continent was suitable for establishment of this pest and in August 2018 the invasion was reported.

According to the model, certain regions of Europe and Australia are also at risk.