Covid-19 vaccine is at least 18 months away, says infectious disease expert

INFECTIOUS disease specialist, Dr Richard Lessells recently shared an overview of the spread of Covid-19 around the world, the trajectory that the disease has followed in different countries, and the positive impact early testing and quarantine have had on the steepness of the infection curve.

Lessels, who is based at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), is currently supporting the local response to the pandemic through the UKZN Covid-19 war room.

In three months, the virus has infected half a million people across the globe.

“News first came out of a cluster of people with undiagnosed pneumonia in Wuhan, China, on ProMED on 30 December, 2019. In just three months we have reached the half a million mark of diagnosed infections worldwide, and the epicentre has shifted from China, to Europe, to the USA.  Such a pandemic was something we as epidemiologists were aware could happen at some stage. As countries we were prepared but at different levels.  Countries expected to have coped have struggled,” said Lessells.

Also read: UKZN launches ‘War Room’ to fight deadly Coronavirus

While international statistics presented by Lessells pointed to a higher mortality rate among older people, South Africa’s population pyramid indicates a younger population than a country such as Italy.

What is not yet known is the effect that HIV and TB would have on the rate of Covid-19 infections.

‘Widespread testing, including asymptomatic people, is what has made the difference and led to relatively low mortality in countries such as South Korea,’ he said.

Discussing the transmission dynamics of Covid-19, Lessells said that the Basic Reproduction Number (R₀ ) indicates how many people on average one person will infect. This is estimated at two to three, which makes it significantly more transmissible than flu.

A possible vaccine is 18 months away

While the speed at which the pandemic has spread is startling,  a widely available vaccine is at least 18 months away.

“Where we are now, the essential thinking is to reduce contact between people, because this is the main variable that we can currently control.  Transmission is primarily via droplets and contact. These transmission methods lead to the recommended measures of physical separation and respiratory and hand hygiene,” he said

Lessells explained that Stage 1 of South Africa’s response focused on a public information campaign, international travel restrictions, school and university closures, and limiting mass gatherings.

Also read: Coronavirus- Durban man shares eerie encounter

“The cornerstone of our public health response has been the identification and isolation of infectious cases, with monitoring and quarantine of close contacts,” he added.

Lessells shared these insights with about 200 participants who joined a video conference for the monthly data@breakfast seminar series hosted by UKZN Pro Vice-Chancellor for Big Data and Informatics, Professor Francesco Petruccione.

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