Where is the Covid-19 third wave? Well, it’s probably closer than you think

While many had anticipated the Easter weekend would spark a new wave of Covid-19 infections, infection numbers remain relatively low and many have started to question how reliable our scientists’ predictions really are.

Talks of a third wave have also resurfaced in the minds of medical experts as South Africa slowly approaches winter (cold and flu season).

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Although the latest Covid-19 modelling consortium published by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) provided no estimate on when the third wave was likely to hit, experts now believe it could hit us at the end of May, going into June.

According to the report, the most likely drivers of a third wave include behavioural changes after the end of the last wave, ongoing viral mutations, seasonal factors and reinfection due to the waning of immunity conveyed by previous infection.

Third wave scenarios

The modelling data further indicated that a third wave will likely peak lower than the second wave, provided that no new variants emerge, while hospital admissions are also expected to be lower.

Those in younger age groups are expected to have fewer hospital admissions than during the second wave.

Gauteng is expected to be the hardest-hit province, since it is home to more than a quarter of South Africa’s population.

“This is due to the higher concentration of working-age adults and people with co-morbidities in the province and the lower estimates of seroprevalence – the level of a pathogen in a population, as measured in blood serum,” the NICD said.

The Gauteng department of health also raised a red flag about the spike in cases seen in the province in the past few days.

See the figures below:

Daily Covid-19 cases

When comparing the current Covid-19 daily infection rate with numbers during the peak of the first two waves, information obtained from German database company Statista shows:

• From 1 July 2020 to 31 July 2020, which saw the first wave peak, South Africa was recording daily cases between 7,096 (lowest) and 13,944 (highest). Cases notably started decreasing mid-August and started increasing again largely in late November.
• From 24 December 2020 to 24 January 2021, which saw the second wave peak, South Africa was recording cases between 7,458 (lowest) and 21,980 (highest) a day. Cases notably started decreasing at the start of February.
• From 3 April 2021 to 3 May 2021, South Africa only recorded cases between 437 (lowest) and 1,674 (highest) a day.

See the graph below:

Statistic: Number of new daily coronavirus (Covid-19) cases in South Africa as of May 3, 2021 | Statista

Concerns over new variants

Speaking to The Citizen on Wednesday morning, professor Linda-Gail Bekker, infectious diseases expert and director of the Desmond Tutu HIV Centre at the University of Cape Town, warned the public to be compliant with lockdown regulations and remain vigilant.

“The impact of a possible third wave will be dictated by how rapidly transmissions are happening because of the unprecedented nature of Covid-19. Although it is a bit difficult to say exactly when the wave will hit the country, people should remain cautious. A third wave is not ruled out, as transmissions are also increasing across Europe,” she said.

ALSO READ: Covid-19: SA risks going the same route as India

Bekker said the government would have to conduct its vaccination rollout efficiently to minimise the risk of the third wave being more deadly than the first two.

Asked if there will be enough access to beds with oxygen supply if hospital admissions started to increase due to the third wave, the professor noted this will be determined by the infection rate.

“Rapid and high transmissions will mean that people are always admitted to hospital. Keep in mind that the impact of a third wave will also differ in each of the nine provinces. Look at how India is struggling at the moment. Their health system seems to be crumbling” she said.

The resurgence of Covid-19 cases in India has raised some concerns in South Africa after three travellers, who arrived at the King Shaka International Airport in KwaZulu-Natal on April 21 and two more on April 25,  from the Asian country tested positive for Covid-19.

READ MORE: Covid-19: Crew on ship from India test positive in Durban

The matter caused an uproar on social media, particularly over the fact of different existing variants detected in India, including the B.1.617 variant.

However, Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize insisted the B.1.617 variant had not yet been detected in South Africa.

The minister said the 501Y.V2 variant, which was discovered in South Africa last year, still remained the most dominant in the country.