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Will SA compromise with Trump? Fears standoff could spark economic freefall

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By Kyle Adam Zeeman

The route from SA to Washington will be busy this week, with several envoys being readied in response to US President Donald Trump’s executive order against South Africa.

Trump signed the order last Friday, alleging human rights issues in the country.

The White House said the order was in response to SA’s land policy that allows its government to “seize ethnic minority Afrikaners’ agricultural property without compensation” and SA’s genocide case against US ally Israel at the International Court of Justice.

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It tasked the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Homeland Security to take appropriate steps “to prioritise humanitarian relief, including admission and resettlement through the United States Refugee Admissions Programme, for Afrikaners in South Africa who are victims of unjust racial discrimination”.

the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) slammed the order, suggesting there is a “campaign of misinformation and propaganda aimed at misrepresenting our great nation”.

ALSO READ: Trump signs executive order against SA, promises to resettle Afrikaans ‘victims of racial discrimination’ as refugees

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Pondering a compromise with Trump

On Saturday, Afrikaans-focused trade union Solidarity and civil rights organisation AfriForum confirmed that they will send delegations to the US to discuss the order. At the same time, the Sunday Times reports that several more envoys from government, business, and the DA will be heading to America to discuss possible compromises.

A strategy meeting is reportedly set for Monday to discuss the tone, stance and messaging to carry to these meetings.

Among the decisions to be made will be how much to compromise, with concerns that tension between SA and the US could send the economy into freefall.

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The South African Chamber of Commerce in the USA (SACCUSA) predicted that the order could cause a brain drain in SA as skilled professionals take up the order’s offer of assistance, leaving SA with a shortage of food production, agricultural value chain, and other vital skills.

SACCUSA president Neil Diamond claimed, in an interview with SABC News, that in the 18 hours following the order being signed, it had received over 10 000 enquiries from South Africans about the order’s relocation process.

What is the solution?

While the EFF’s solution is to cosy up to fellow BRICS nations China and Russia, the SA government is looking first to repairing relations with America.

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President Cyril Ramaphosa said in his State of the Nation Address last week that the country would not be bullied, and his spokesperson Vincent Magwenya told the Sunday Times the same stance would be carried into negotiations with the Trump administration.

“It is now abundantly clear that the issues in dispute are no longer confined to the signing of the Expropriation Act.

“Other issues have since emerged. Our stance against the genocidal state of Israel and subsequent action taken at the ICJ, our G20 theme of equality, solidarity and sustainability, seem to have angered some in Washington.”

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Last month, Trump froze key HIV/AIDS funding from the US to SA as part of his “America First” agenda.

He followed this up on earlier this week with a social media post slamming the Expropriation Act, claiming the government is “confiscating land and treating certain classes of people very badly”. The claims have been denied by SA President Cyril Ramaphosa and his ministers.

In the diplomatic storm that has followed, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pull out of an upcoming G20 summit in Johannesburg, claiming “anti-Americanism”.

ALSO READ: Government won’t let HIV/AIDS patients suffer as US freezes aid – Motsoaledi

Trump’s order: SA political conundrum

Political analyst Daniel Silke believes politicians need to walk a fine line.

“Washington’s spotlight on South Africa presents a political dilemma. Either Pretoria softens her tone or digs in her heels.

“Either she seeks to keep the US on board, or she drifts further to the US’s geo-political rivals,” he said.

Silke predicted that the ANC might gravitate toward whichever stance would win them votes.

“The US focus on South Africa provides the ANC with a domestic political conundrum. Aggressive criticism of Washington will only exacerbate diplomatic and economic tensions but can win votes from aggrieved voters whose nationalistic pride can be re-awakened,” he explained.

ALSO READ: Trump’s SA executive order: Government slams ‘propoganda’, takes shots at US refugee system

GNU partners are also in a pickle

Silke said the order will also reverberate across the ANC’s partners in the government of national unity (GNU) coalition.

“The US spotlight is another awkward moment for the DA and Freedom Front Plus in the GNU as they grapple with both the ANC’s domestic and foreign policy leads and may have to defend them in the wake of pressure from Washington,” he noted.

Expropriation Act a thorn in GNU’s side

There is already tension in the GNU over Ramaphosa’s recent signing of the controversial Expropriation Act into law, which allows for the expropriation of land with nil compensation if it is in the public interest.

The DA challenged the Act, claiming it contained concerning inconsistencies and threatened legal action.

Amid Trump’s actions over the Act, the DA has clarified that it does not support it but “South African citizens should not be punished by the US for bad policy”.

NOW READ: Trump’s SA executive order: The ANC, DA and GNU’s conundrum

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Published by
By Kyle Adam Zeeman