Success of African peace mission ‘will depend on how reasonable Ukraine and Russia are’

The initiative of African presidents to facilitate a peace process in the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which entangled the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) and the European Union (EU), is a noble one, according to an expert.

However, there may still be a rocky road ahead.

On Monday, President Cyril Ramaphosa hosted his counterparts who would be involved in the African peace initiative with regard to the war in Ukraine.

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The participants included the president of the Comoros Islands and current president of the African Union Othman Ghazali, president of Egypt Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, president of Senegal Macky Sall, president of Uganda Yoweri Museveni and president of Zambia Hakainde Hichilema.

Impact of war

The presidency said in a statement the heads of state deliberated on the devastating impact the war had on the people of Ukraine and Russia, as well as the threats it posed to Europe and the rest of the world if it continued.

“The leaders agreed they would engage with both President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky on the elements for a ceasefire and a lasting peace in the region,” it said.

“The foreign ministers of the respective countries were tasked to finalise the elements of a road map to peace.

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“The presidents confirmed their availability to travel to Ukraine and Russia in mid-June.”

Zelensky on Monday praised his troops for advances claimed near the devastated city of Bakhmut, while Russia said it had repelled a large-scale attack.

The contrasting claims came as Pope Francis’ peace envoy, Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, arrived in Kyiv for two days of talks, according to AFP.

Earlier, Ukraine Deputy Defence Minister Ganna Malyar noted “some success” on the battlefield.

“The Bakhmut sector remains the epicentre of the hostilities. We are advancing there on a rather wide front,” she said.

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In May, Russia said it had seized the now-destroyed eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the scene of the longest and one of the bloodiest battles of the war.

Ukraine said it had been preparing a major offensive to recapture territory lost to Russia, but there would be no announcement about when it would start.

How reasonable are Ukraine and Russia?

Political analyst Professor Siphamandla Zondi said it was noble of African heads of state to take up this initiative because it gave expression to their non-alignment in this conflict, but aligning with peace and diplomacy.

According to Zondi, one of the key beliefs of the United Nations (UN) era, derived from an article in the UN Charter, called for peaceful settlement of all conflict.

“It’s a principle of the UN you find a civilised, peaceful diplomatic ways to end the conflict because conflict is horrible, conflict destroys everybody and conflict destroys the economies of the world,” he said.

“It puts the poor all over the world in a more precarious position than they were in the past and whether this peace initiative has a chance to succeed, we will never know and never do we ever have a sense that a peace effort will be successful beforehand.

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“It will depend on how reasonable Ukraine and Russia are and how reasonable the US, Nato and the EU are to allow the development to proceed.”

Zondi said the process could fade, but not because it was weak or ineffective, but because the big players involved did not allow it the chance.

“If Nato still feels it has deep pockets that can supply weapons perpetually to Ukraine, and if Russia feels it has enough weaponry to continue this war, of course, the peace will not succeed.

“Sadly, it will be a victory of brutality.”