What the ‘new normal’ could look like under Level 4

The chance to comment on a draft framework for the risk-adjusted strategy to bring different sectors of the economy back to work passed on Monday at noon, and South Africa will soon find out exactly what “Level 4” means in terms of the next phase of “normal”.

According to cooperative governance and traditional affairs spokesperson Lungi Mtshali, 69,675 submissions were received by cut-off.

With the country still on a Level 5 lockdown, which saw Moody’s yesterday tank the economy even further, various occupations could be allowed to resume.

Moody’s has changed the outlook for the South African banking system to negative from stable, reflecting its assessment that “disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak will exacerbate the already challenging operating conditions in the country”, Constantinos Kypreos, Moody’s Investors Service senior vice-president said in a report yesterday.

“The fallout from the outbreak will weaken the creditworthiness of South African banks by hurting loan performance and profitability and severely hampering business growth.”

Kypreos forecast gross domestic product (GDP) will contract 6.5% in real terms in 2020, a result of structural challenges and the severe hit to economic activity caused by the coronavirus.

“The government’s capacity to support banks is limited. A formal bank resolution regime will likely be in place in 2021, introducing bail-in for certain creditors in a bank insolvency,” Kypreos said.

Given Moody’s particularly harsh assessment of the banking sector, what’s on the cards for the economy with Level 4 approaching, is that levels can be set regionally if needed and within the time frame of 5am to 8pm (curfew is from 8pm to 5am), unless you’re an essential service worker.

Manufacture of retail products permitted to be sold under Level Four, and all input products, permitted scaling up to full employment, except where otherwise indicated. These include the manufacture of paper and paper products, permitted scaling up to full employment; packaging, including glass, plastic bottles and containers, permitted scaling up to full employment; petroleum smelters, refineries and furnaces, permitted scaling up to full employment; winter clothing, bedding and heaters permitted, commencing at 25% and scaling up to 50% employment.

Interprovincial travel is still not permitted except to return to work with proof of employment, no recreational travel or to meet friends or family, mandatory use of cloth masks and emergencies for medical reasons are ones which will affect people on a personal level.

The home delivery of hot, cooked, food is envisioned, which means restaurants can only operate for food delivery services (9am-8pm) and subject to curfew, so no sit-down or pick-up allowed. If you have been pining for your domestic helper to return to work, you may as well get stuck into your mountain of laundry because unless your staff is live-in, they are still out of the picture according to the draft, Mtshali said.

The recycling of glass, paper and metal, including informal recyclers at 50% capacity, could be permitted while the sale of stationery and educational books, tobacco products, personal information and communication technology (ICT) equipment – including computers, mobile telephones and other home office equipment – could be on the cards.

ICT services could also be allowed to return, “subject to directions issues by the relevant cabinet members”.

Emergency car repairs for all persons may also be allowed.

– amandaw@citizen.co.za

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