Onset of rain uncertain as La Nina delayed to next year

It’s still too early to tell whether the weather will come to the rescue of a water-thirsty Gauteng, because a La Niña phenomenon, which normally brings above-average rains, may only kick in next year, meteorologists say.

SA Weather Service lead scientist Dr Christien Engelbrecht said the rainfall outlook for the interior parts from spring to mid-summer was not that favourable this year.

Weather update: Heatwave comes to Northern, Western Capes while coast receives rain

“For the remainder of spring and summer the El Nino was in a neutral phase and was predicted to move into a La Niña event, where one can typically expect above-normal rainfall.

“However, in this coming summer season the La Niña was predicted to be weak until January-February.

“This means the rainfall predictions are a little uncertain,” she said.

Not much rain expected in next two weeks

Engelbrecht said above-average temperatures were predicted for the remainder of the spring and mid-summer period.

“In some areas in the eastern and western parts there are very low probabilities of above-normal rain indicated for mid-summer.

“Spring is also not that favourable for rainfall currently,” she said.

There is still no rain predicted for at least two weeks in the interior parts of the country, with cooler temperatures to continue for at least the next week.

Vox Weather meteorologist Michelle Cordier said not much rain was expected for the next two weeks.

“It is hard to say when the rain will come,” she added.

The temperatures in the interior would be cool to moderate in the low to mid-20°C for the rest of the week, Cordier said.

“This is due to an onshore flow of air that keeps the cool over the eastern parts of the country.

“The weekend is a bit warmer, but not as hot as last week.

“Next week is cooler again, with temperatures in the low 20°C and even below 20°C.

“So, it looks like the temperatures are going to be up and down for the next two weeks,” she said.

ALSO READ: La Niña forecasted to bring wet conditions and boost agriculture

SA Weather Service says snow not uncommon at this time

South African Weather Service senior manager for disaster risk management Rudzani Malala said there was no new severe or extreme weather anticipated for the week or two ahead.

Malala said the recent cut-off lows were intense low-pressure systems notorious for causing widespread flooding, as evidenced by events such as the devastating flooding in KwaZulu-Natal in April 2022 and the heavy snow last month.

“Snow in the late winter and early spring is not unusual or rare at all.

“The more intense, extreme snow systems tend to affect southern Africa in very late winter, especially over the eastern provinces.

“We have even had snow in Johannesburg as late as October in 2011. Snow is not restricted only to the winter months.

“On rare occasions, three times in the past century snow has occurred on New Year’s Day over the KZN Drakensberg,” Malala said.

“Over the next few days, a surface high ridging south of the subcontinent will continue to advent cool moisture-laden air over the eastern provinces, resulting in a sustained chance of light showers and rain over KZN and the eastern parts of Mpumalanga.

“Towards the end of the week, the eastern parts dry out and warm up with the emphasis shifting to the western extremities of the country where an approaching upper air disturbance over the Atlantic Ocean is expected to promote the development of isolated showers and thundershowers over Namibia and the coast.”

ALSO READ: Is Gauteng drier than normal this time of the year? SA Weather Service explains