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As the grass stays dry, and car owners put off getting a wash in anticipation of more rain this month, the SA Weather Service (SAWS) has reassured that nothing is out of the ordinary in Gauteng.
Residents in the province have expressed their concerns at the lack of rain, with many believing delays in proper rainfall are the result of the effects of climate change.
But looking at historical rainfall shows Gauteng has experienced low levels of rainfall over the past 5 years.
Graphs show that 2020 had 0-10mm of rainfall across most of the province, except for the central area which saw 10-25mm.
It got a lot wetter a year later, with most of the province experiencing 50-100mm and the southern part of the province receiving less.
It was dry in 2022, with almost the entire province experiencing 0-10mm, and an even more significant drop from 2022 to 2023 when most of the country experienced 0-10mm of rainfall.
Preliminary data for 2024 found that Gauteng remained at 0-10mm for the first 10 days of September.
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Further explaining this pattern, climatologist at the SA Weather Service, Andries Kruger told The Citizen that between 2019 and 2023 “four of the five years were considered dry and one wet”.
Using a graph representing the rainfall at OR Tambo International Airport from 1990 to 2023, he explains that September is almost always dry.
“Most years have very low values. Then there are some years, a very small minority, with very high values, especially 2001 and 2012.”
“These anomalously high values help to bring the average up to about 17 mm for the period 1991 – 2020.”
Kruger said the weather service was not concerned about a trend of decreased rainfall because winter, late autumn and early spring in Gauteng are “typically dry months”.
“If you test statistically, there is no strong indication of a gradual drying in September in Gauteng over the last 30 years.”
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SAWS meteorologist, Lehlohonolo Thobela told The Citizen that most parts of the country are drier than normal, with Northeastern parts often experiencing a lot of heat waves.
However, Thobela said spring and winter will likely be wetter.
“Seasonal forecast suggests that we might move into a weak La Nina season, which can lead to above normal rainfall for the central and the northeastern parts, covering the Free State, the North West province, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, with above normal rainfall expected for October, November and December.”
“The difference between last year’s spring and summer and this year is this above-normal rainfall. However, the temperatures are still expected to be above normal for most parts of the country,” he said.
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Additional reporting by Oratile Mashilo
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