Upcoming rainfall seasons are unlikely to bring much drought relief

The upcoming rainfall seasons will not bring any relief to the drought in the country, as below-normal rain is expected for most of the country until April, and the dryness remains evident when travelling from Gauteng to the Eastern Cape.

That is according to chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa Wandile Sihlobo, who noted back in 2015 that when frequent droughts are not a norm in the country, a drive from Gauteng to the Eastern Cape during December is filled with lush maize and soybean fields, with livestock and grazing fields.

“But this year, the effects of the dry weather conditions started to show,” Sihlobo said.

He said the recent rainfall showed a false sense of recovery in vegetation and farms through Gauteng as it is “nicely green”.

“But as soon as one drives through the Free State into the southern regions of the province that border the Eastern Cape, a notable change in the picture can be seen. The southern Free State to northern and central regions of the Eastern Cape are still very dry, and livestock grazing along the way and in nearby farms where I managed to stop are not looking well.”

The Eastern Cape was declared a drought disaster area in the Government Gazette published in October. This meant the province would be allowed much-needed drought relief funding from government. But in the meantime, the drought conditions would continue to persist.

In a preliminary forecast by the South African Weather Service, rain in the summer period of January, February and March, as well as early autumn until April, showed probabilities of below-normal rainfall for most of the country.

“With regards to temperatures, mostly higher-than-normal temperatures are expected this summer over most of South Africa,” the weather service said.

Sihlobo said this was bad news for farmers in the southern Free State, Eastern Cape and parts of Limpopo, which were already in bad shape.

“In as far as summer crop production are concerned, we will have a clearer picture of the area planted and crop conditions at the end of January 2020 when the official crop surveys are done. But as far as one can tell from activity on the ground and the aforementioned weather forecast, South Africa is not yet out of the woods.”

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