Ramaphosa ‘will not’ finish his second term, ‘regardless of political protection’

In spite of President Cyril Ramaphosa winning the political battle with a resounding re-election at the ANC’s 55th national elective conference, the outcome of the investigation by law enforcement agencies could prove an impediment to him finishing his second term in office.

His ambitious deputy, Paul Mashatile, is positioning himself to take the reins, according to political analysts.

They cited Mashatile’s call for a special NEC meeting, after the parliamentary Section 89 independent panel report on Phala Phala found Ramaphosa had a case to answer.

Of concern was Mashatile’s vacillating political loyalty in the run-up to the conference.

Ramaphosa’s most recent predecessors, Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma, had to leave office due to party pressures.

Phala Phala legal battle crucial

Unanimous in sketching a scenario that could lead to Ramaphosa not completing his second term, independent political analyst Sandile Swana and Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast of the department of history and political studies at Nelson Mandela University said the outcome of a legal battle over Phala Phala was crucial.

Despite a largely pro-Ramaphosa top seven ANC leadership, which included secretary-general (SG) Fikile Mbalula and national chair Gwede Mantashe, Swana predicted he would not finish his second term “regardless of how much political protection he has marshalled”.

Eight law-enforcement agencies are investigating Ramaphosa and the outcome could “trigger a wide range of impeachments and motions of no confidence”.

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“Retired chief justice Sandile Ngcobo found there was a case to answer in terms the Section 89 panel report and opposition parties are going fight in court to make sure the impeachment process continues,” said Swana.

Breakfast said a positive development from the conference was “there is now a synergy between the president and the SG”.

“Previously, the SG and president did not speak the same language – crossing swords in public.

“This combination is going to contribute towards the strategic direction of the ANC.

“The president is the embodiment of the party and the custodian of policy … the SG is the chief administrator.

“Whether the president finishes his term or not depends on this relationship with the SG and the branches of the ANC.”

Court could rule against Ramaphosa

Breakfast said while he won the political encounter, Ramaphosa faced a looming legal battle, which could go either way.

“It is not obvious the court ruling will be in favour of him because the Section 89 report talks about prima facie evidence the president has to answer to; he might have violated the constitution. That court ruling is going to be important… If it goes against him, he will have no option but to resign.

“He could have taken those findings to a lower court but chose the Constitutional Court, meaning he might have been advised accordingly by his legal advisors.”

Breakfast described Mashatile as “an ambitious person”.

“Mashatile has strategically used the acting SG position to garner support – no wonder he has emerged as deputy president.

“Politically, Mashatile has been on the fence because he was supported by the radical economic transformation [RET] faction in the build-up to the conference, but when he went to KwaZulu-Natal, he pledged support for Ramaphosa. At that time, he had already garnered enough support for himself.

“He is not to be trusted, because he earlier tried to betray Ramaphosa by siding with the Mkhize faction during the Eastern Cape conference.”

Both Swana and Breakfast said the RET forces appear defeated but were likely to regroup and fight back.

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– brians@citizen.co.za