‘Damage has been done’ – Ramaphosa likely not to make the 2024 elections

Despite the ANC probably facing its most difficult elections next year, President Cyril Ramaphosa is facing an even more difficult time following Monday’s Cabinet reshuffle, according to political economic analyst Daniel Silke.

Silke said the lacklustre and timid Cabinet reshuffle continued to show severe constraints because Ramaphosa “still largely has to comply with the pressures from the various elements of the ANC in terms of how positions are distributed”.

ALSO READ: Cabinet reshuffle shows Ramaphosa still puts ANC politics before needs of SA

“The power bases which have supported him continue to demand payback,” he said. “There really wasn’t any kind of real impetus for reform in terms of the repositioning of ministers, or even the introduction of most of the new ministers into this equation.

“It does indicate the lack of talent available to the president from within the broad cadres of the ANC itself and reflects simply on the continuation of retreading many of the previous Cabinet ministers in their particular portfolios.”

Stalwarts

Ramaphosa stalwarts – Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan, under whom crippled Eskom runs, Police Minister Bheki Cele, who spends his time flying from crime scene to crime scene, promising to do better, and Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe, who hasn’t brought new power to the grid in years – all survived the shake-up.

The new kid on the block is Maropene Ramokgopa as incoming minister in the presidency responsible for planning, monitoring and evaluation. She has been orbiting Ramaphosa since at least 2020.

ALSO READ: Tax evasion can put ‘stain on Ramaphosa’s reputation and fitness to hold office’

In 2006, Ramokgopa claimed she was made a mayor in the Eastern Cape by former president Thabo Mbeki. His successor, Jacob Zuma, appointed her as consul-general in Mumbai, India, in 2016.

Last July, before her election as deputy secretary-general of the ANC in December, she told News24:

“Whoever else is going to be a president of South Africa will effectively be called my ally because the presidents of the ANC believe in me.”

Ramokgopa is now in the top10 of the ANC national executive committee.

Silke said regardless of Paul Mashatile’s deputy president position obviously being expected, it was an important part of a shift in the leadership change for the ANC over the next few years.

“The ANC now [has a] deputy president who could certainly become the president if need be. If there are legal issues pertaining to Phala Phala, which could negatively affect Ramaphosa, then at least there is a deputy president who will be seen as able to be a front-of-house person,” he said.

ALSO READ: Ramaphosa’s visit to Phala Phala a ‘well-calculated tactical move’

A tax compliance statement issued by the SA Revenue Service (Sars) yesterday indicated that the $4 million (about R74 million) sale of game at Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala farm in 2020 was declared, according to commissioner Edward Kieswetter.

Ramaphosa had allowed Sars to reveal that he, as well as his Nyoni Estate and Ntaba Nyoni feedlot, were tax compliant.

On Monday, Sars reported there was no record that Sudanese businessman Hazim Mustafa had declared the $580 000 cash he had brought into the country in December 2019.

Ramaphosa ‘might not make it’

Political analyst Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast said with Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala saga resurfacing, history would repeat itself, despite him trying to “strike a balance in terms of the fictional interest of different groups”.

“The ANC has a history of deputy presidents outmanoeuvring the incumbent.”

“So the assumption that ANC deputy president and Ramaphosa’s newly announced second-in-command Mashatile still might outmanoeuvre the incumbent at the moment is not far-fetched.”

Breakfast said Ramaphosa was likely not to even make the 2024 elections because “the damage has been done and what is done cannot be undone”.

ALSO READ: Phala Phala: Sars confirms that Ramaphosa’s stolen dollars were not declared

“The country is at tipping point because everything is falling apart.”

Ministers Ramaphosa kept

• Police Minister Bheki Cele said despite many calling for him to be axed, President Cyril Ramaphosa and millions of South Africans trusted him to continue leading the department.
• He said his job was not only done in front of cameras; many things had been done behind the scenes.
• Cele has been accused of being a reactive minister, rather than one who puts measures in place to prevent crime.
• “To say we allow people to die because we want to go in front of cameras and we don’t prevent these things so that we can go in front of cameras, I want assure people when these people die, we feel pain and try our best to stop it.
• “There are South Africans who feel pain and they are correct to feel pain and call for change, but there are those who see the efforts and support those efforts. There are so many things we do outside the cameras.
• “Those that have a problem have the right to make the call. We will continue to try harder to make sure that we work with South Africans and to make sure their lives are better.”

– reitumetsem@citizen.co.za