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The geopolitical landscape is evolving, with China rising and Trump’s policies reshaping global alliances. Where does South Africa fit in?
Futurist, speaker and author Keith Coats says the seismic changes the world order is going through demand new ways of thinking. Picture: Supplied
The world order, as we know it, is staring down the barrel of its own identity crisis.
Accelerating geopolitical polarisation, wars of words, trade and missiles that light up various parts of the globe in some form or another are fast ushering in a new world order.
In South Africa, the government of national unity (GNU) will celebrate its first birthday next month. It ushered in a new era of politics and at the same time, the country is trying to find its feet in the present world order while hedging its bets against the future lay of the land.
Futurist, speaker and author Keith Coats is a global expert on leadership in times of uncertainty. He believes the world is undergoing a seismic change and demands new ways of thinking.
It’s a second layer of geopolitical and socioeconomic diplomatic challenges for South Africa as the GNU continues to find shape.
“We have to ask ourselves who we are and where we stand in global politics. The GNU was historic, but it has also exposed deep contradictions that we haven’t resolved yet. Every party entered the arrangement with its own agenda, but governing still requires compromise and that’s where the tension still lies.”
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Despite the ANC’s losses, it avoided chaos, which Coats saw as a sign of democratic maturity.
However, he cautioned: “Democracy is never neat. Even the US deals with dysfunction. The real test is balancing ideals with governance.”
In GNU governance, ideological purity is impossible, he said.
“Parties campaigned on promises like opposing the NHI [National Health Insurance], Bela [Basic Education Laws Amendment Act] and the Land Expropriation [Act], but in government, they must govern,” he said.
All three were election “red lines”, but have been signed into law nevertheless.
People are blaming party leaders, but being part of the GNU is a double-edged sword, ideologically.
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“If you’re in Cabinet, you work for a president who may oppose your ideology. How do you lead an opposition while implementing government policies? It’s a near-impossible balancing act.”
Beyond its internal frictions, South Africa’s place in the world is also changing. “Are we as relevant as we think?” Coats asked.
“We are not a superpower, but our history and Mandela’s legacy still gives us a voice. The challenge is making that influence count.”
As a Brics founding member, South Africa does retain some relevance, though Coats warned of misconceptions about its alliances.
“Some still think we should align with the West. That’s not our reality. We are firmly part of the Global South. Our biggest trading partner is China. These aren’t political choices; they’re economic realities. We need to see ourselves as we are, not as we’d like to be seen.”
Zooming out from local pressures, the global order is no longer as predictable as it once was, either.
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“For most of the 20th century, the world was shaped by US dominance. That’s changing,” he said.
“The 21st century is China’s turn. Economically, they are outpacing the US and Washington’s attempts to contain them are not working. This is no longer a world where one country dictates the rules.”
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is already disrupting global dynamics.
Coates said the next four years would be anything but stable.
“Trump’s second term is going to be different from his first. This time, he has surrounded himself with people who fully believe in his vision and will push his policies hard. He won’t be thinking about re-election, which makes him even more unpredictable.”
The relationship between the US and South Africa is bound to face new pressures.
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“He does not approach diplomacy in the traditional sense,” said Coats. “His view is transactional. If a relationship isn’t serving immediate US interests, he won’t maintain it. That’s going to affect trade and South Africa needs to be ready for that.”
Coates noted Trump’s recent public altercation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“It is a real concern because it shows where global tension is headed. But when it comes to a world war like Trump suggested, in the traditional sense, I don’t see it happening.
“It makes for great headlines, but nuclear war isn’t the real threat. The US and China are not going to start bombing each other. The real conflict is economic. It’s about trade wars, technological dominance and controlling key industries. South Africa’s challenge is making sure it doesn’t get caught in the middle.”
The Middle East, he says, will also likely remain an area of unresolved conflict.
“That region is never going to be fixed. It changes, but it doesn’t end. What’s more interesting is how those countries navigate the growing divide between the US and China.
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“For years, Gulf states have successfully played both sides, relying on US technology and Chinese financing. That neutrality may not be sustainable for much longer.”
To deal with all of this, Coats says, South Africa needs to be smart. “We still have influence in certain spaces. The key is using that influence wisely.”
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