Mashatile ‘may’ dump Ramaphosa’s camp leading to conference – expert

It won’t be a surprise if ANC treasurer-general Paul Mashatile pursues his own path and does not go with President Cyril Ramaphosa towards the party’s December national conference, a political expert says.

But if the election of former Ekurhuleni ANC mayor Mzwandile Masina is confirmed after the outstanding votes were verified, the Mashatile and Masina element could present a dangerous poser for Ramaphosa, should Mashatile drift away from him permanently.

But he is unlikely to do so.

Amid rumours that Mashatile and premier David Makhura were gravitating towards the radical economic transformation (RET) faction loyal to former president Jacob Zuma, or the new grouping led by former health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize, Mashatile’s allegiance to Ramaphosa had been called into question.

But political analyst Prof André Duvenhage said it won’t be surprising if Mashatile drifted away from Ramaphosa for a while because that’s his habit towards an ANC election as that is his way of pursuing self-interests within the party.

“He deviated away from Ramaphosa before Nasrec [the organisation’s 2017 elective conference] but drifted back after Nasrec.

“For him, there are political and self-interests to pursue. He knows there is horse trading to happen during the ANC conference election and that horse trading will determine who becomes president and deputy president.

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“I am confident that Ramaphosa is relatively clear to be re-elected as ANC president and Paul Mashatile is aiming to be the deputy president,” Duvenhage said.

Mashatile is one of the most influential leaders in the ANC, especially in Gauteng.

Under his previous party leadership in the province, ANC always followed its own path from the rest of the ANC – preferring to choose neither of the two main factions.

Prior to the 2017 Nasrec conference, Mashatile was part of the socalled “premier league” with former premiers of Mpumalanga David Mabuza, Free State’s Ace Magashule and North West’s Supra Mahumapelo.

They pursued self-interest, hoping to emerge as the energetic next generation of ANC national leaders.

But the grouping failed to make any progress in their manoeuvres and subsequently rejoined the Zuma and Ramaphosa factions. Mabuza was elected ANC deputy president, Mashatile as treasurer-general, Magashule as secretary-general while Mahumapelo was ousted and subsequently redeployed to parliament.

Some people in the Eastern Cape were unhappy with how Mashatile handled disputes in the region’s elections as he appeared to be favouring Babalo Madikizela, who was challenging Oscar Mabuyane for the ANC chair position.

The Eastern Cape associated Mashatile with the Mkhize grouping. In the province, they accused him of entertaining even flimsy complaints from Madikizela supporters.

Mashatile ordered the reinstatement of members who were placed on step-aside by the former provincial executive committee, which was then reconstituted into a provincial task team.

“Mashatile has always been an unknown factor in ANC politics. It won’t be a surprise if he moves away from Ramaphosa. During his time as provincial chair, Gauteng always had a different position compared to other provinces,” Kotze said.

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But Makhura had always been close to Ramaphosa, although new dynamics may emerge because Gauteng was difficult to predict.

This is because its three main regions of Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Johannesburg always had their internal dynamics that impacted provincial politics and its stance towards ANC elections.

“There has been no move one or the other way. I think it has remained relatively stagnant in Gauteng,” Kotze said.