Government of national unity: ‘SA heads for stormy waters’

As an economist yesterday cautioned that markets and business were likely to remain nervous and risk-averse until the emergence of certainty from the ANC-mooted government of national unity (GNU).

And political analysts maintained that unless there was overall buy-in by parties on key policy imperatives, the road ahead could be rocky.

After this week’s marathon meeting of the ANC national executive committee (NEC), party leader President Cyril Ramaphosa said the top brass has opted for a GNU model after losing an outright majority in the in the 2024 polls.

Ramaphosa called on political parties to forge a common future

Calling on political parties to forge a common future for the country, Ramaphosa urged “speed to safeguard national unity, peace, stability, inclusive economic growth, non-racialism and non-sexism”.

Commenting on the implications of the GNU for the economy, North-West University economics Prof Raymond Parsons said financial markets and business wanted to eventually see a stable government providing sound leadership, promoting reform and offering policy certainty.

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“As political leaders negotiate options such as the GNU, they must test what coalition arrangements will ultimately best serve the national interest.

“For now, however, the highly precautionary stance of many economic stakeholders is that SA inevitably remains navigating poorly charted waters and avoiding rocks of uncertainty.”

Opportunity for continuity with new partners

The ANC, he said, remained the biggest party “providing a clear opportunity for continuity with new partners in a shared political space such as a GNU”.

“There is still a tough negotiating road ahead. One possible instrument for the ANC to narrow differences in the search for governing partners could be the National Development Plan (NDP).

“Several parties which previously supported the NDP are involved in current negotiations. The NDP could offer shared values, help finding common ground and areas of policy compromise.”

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Political experts Sandile Swana and Daniel Silke said reaching agreement on the mechanics of the GNU was crucial.

Work programme and people driving it was important

While Swana said a GNU was in the best interests of the country, a work programme and people driving it was important.

“Before we see the work programme and the competencies of the people appointed to the Cabinet, we cannot necessarily say this GNU will be successful.

“If you appoint weak, corrupt people, you will not get good results,” said Swana.

“To succeed, the GNU also has to be all-inclusive. There can be no successful government without the cooperation of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party. Once you isolate the EFF and MK, you are creating a centre for rebellion.”

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Silke said: “What most political parties will be looking at is what is in it for them. Most importantly, parties will be keen to understand what type of a political agenda will be set. Most parties are left of centre and the DA is the only party which is right of centre. Where does this leave the DA in achieving its agenda?

“What is the broader thrust in terms of new policies? Any of those aspects could undermine the longevity of the GNU.