GNU built on shaky ground, experts say

The ongoing policy disputes within the government of national unity (GNU) are likely to persist because it was built on an unstable foundation, experts say.

Independent political analyst Sandile Swana said the GNU was not designed for the political parties that make up the coalition to reach agreements, as it lacked a solid framework.

No common framework

The GNU was established in response to the outcomes of the May 2024 elections and the politicians involved should have negotiated a common programme of action for the next five years. But they failed to do so.

“They wasted time between June 2024 and February this year without actually agreeing on a commonly agreed-upon fiscal framework; hence, the national budget could not be adopted,” said Swana.

“The first problem is that they didn’t have a credible process to agree on the fiscal framework. They negotiated on all sorts of other things, but not the framework.

“So, whatever other ideas you may have, they are not going to fly if they are not encapsulated in the framework.”

ANC and DA power struggle escalates

The current squabble between the ANC and the DA was set to continue because both parties believed they were entitled to govern, even with small voter percentages.

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But the real bone of contention was that the DA had an unfair share of power that it did not deserve in the GNU compared to other parties.

Swana said the DA punched above its weight in the GNU and this complicated matters in the coalition.

Business backing fuels controversy

“The DA is getting an unfair share of how the state should be run. This is exacerbated by how it seeks to conceptualise the GNU to say ‘this GNU cannot work without us because business says so’,” Swana said.

Business’ pronouncement that the GNU could not work without the DA and it would not work in a coalition without the party having a disproportionate say and presence was controversial.

The DA worked on the premise that the 40% that the ANC received in the 2024 election meant voters no longer wanted the ANC and the DA is its substitute.

“The DA sees itself as the substitute on the one hand and the prefect to supervise the ANC on how to run the country, on the other hand. So, the ANC needs to agree regularly to the supervision and direction of the DA. That is another bone of contention,” Swana said.

Baby GNU

Another independent analyst, Goodenough Mashego, said the GNU was like a baby that needed to be vaccinated all the time.

“It becomes legitimate to wonder if this is the government we need. The model we have now is not a perfect one compared to the model we had in 1994,” he said.

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The 1996 GNU was workable; it remained intact even after the former National Party left the coalition with parties like the IFP.

Other parties that were subsequently invited into government by Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki later remained to participate in it.

But there was doubt about the future of the current GNU due to so many squabbles.

Missed leadership opportunity

“The ANC believes it is a leader by virtue of the 40% it received in the election. But when you are in the GNU, you don’t need to assume the posture of a leader. You need to give the impression that other political parties are equal to you, as we saw with Mandela,” Mashego said.

He said President Cyril Ramaphosa made a mistake by not creating the post of second deputy president for the DA.

This would have prevented the party from playing opposition politics within the GNU. The ANC needed to humble itself, considering that the ANC in the GNU is also weakened.

At the same time, the ANC could govern as a minority government because parties that were outside coalition could constitute a majority opposition.

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