Disunity of opposition parties good for ANC win

The ANC faces the possibility of losing power in 2024 but the lack of coherence among opposition parties could be the saving grace for it to hold on to power.

If it loses power to a conglomerate of opposition parties – getting less than 45% of the vote – it can be saved by forming a coalition with a stronger party like the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

But there is a possibility the ANC can resort to the Democratic Alliance (DA) because a partnership with the EFF will be problematic for President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Coalition govt possible if ANC recieves 45% and above but still below 50%

Prof Dirk Kotzé said if the ANC received 45% and above but still below the 50% plus one threshold, it would lead a coalition government with any of the smaller parties without the EFF or the DA.

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But the opposition could not be trusted to remain united against the ruling party, as their disagreements could give the ANC an opportunity to manoeuvre its way back into power.

“If they (ANC) are in the very low 40s in percentage terms, but will still be the biggest party, that’s where things become tricky. Then it means the opposition might be in position to form a coalition to govern without the ANC,” Kotzé said.

“This opposition coalition would need 50% plus one majority upfront, otherwise, if they don’t have that, it most probably would still be an ANC-led type of coalition, even if it got 41% or 42%.”

Kotzé suggested the possible emergence of a “grand coalition” to produce a government of national unity, similar to the 1994 arrangement.

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The partners could be the ANC, DA, Inkatha Freedom Party, African Christian Democratic Party, ActionSA, the Freedom Front Plus and others, because some in the ANC did not want the EFF.

Three power blocs could emerge – Holomisa

Kotzé’s forecast appears similar to that by United Democratic Movement (UDM) leader Bantu Holomisa, who said three power blocs could emerge.

The first bloc would be the ANC-led tripartite alliance with SACP and Cosatu. The second would be the Multi-party Charter for SA on the right, led by the DA.

A new third bloc with leftist parties like the EFF, Pan Africanist Congress, Azapo, UDM, African Transformation Movement and African Congress for Transformation, which he envisaged would be future kingmakers.

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