Dumped by RET and Ramaphosa factions, Mabuza now finds himself in the political cold

The man who delivered the ANC presidency to Cyril Ramaphosa at Nasrec in 2017, David “DD” Mabuza, now finds himself out in the political cold as the party heads towards its elective conference in December.

Mabuza, a former Mpumalanga premier and currently deputy president, brought a block of votes to Nasrec for Ramaphosa, resulting in the defeat of the ANC’s radical economic transformation (RET) faction, led by Jacob Zuma, and its candidate Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

Mabuza is struggling to get nominations from his party branches because he has lost his Mpumalanga constituency and his political war chest is depleted. The sponsors who bankrolled him in Mpumalanga have deserted him, says an expert based in the province.

Dumped by both the RET and Ramaphosa factions, Mabuza’s cap-in-hand plea to be nominated by ANC structures has not yielded results.

A number of political analysts say he has nobody but himself to blame for his precarious position because he abandoned his Mpumalanga power base when he became deputy president.

‘Mabuza lost touch with branches’

Political analyst Goodenough Mashego, a specialist on ANC dynamics in Mpumalanga, said Mabuza had lost touch with the grassroots.

“I believe DD is struggling because he has lost touch with branches that pushed him to deputy president position the last time around,” Mashego said.

“Also, with changes made to the provincial [executive committee] and departments, his source of a war chest has been technically eradicated.

“Most businesspeople who built his 2017 war chest didn’t get their contracts renewed, and so his pockets are not deep.”

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Mabuza ran Mpumalanga on patronage; something he struggles to dispense today.

In 2017, he had branches and was assisted by the ambiguity he took to conference, he said.

Another political analyst, André Duvenhage, said Mabuza had always been a dark horse because he was unpredictable, but he was unlikely to make it back to his current position at the national conference.

The North-West University-based political scientist, however, said anything was possible in ANC elections because of behind-the-scenes trade-offs and money that had changed hands within the party in the past few years.

“Mabuza is unpredictable. He is a very dark horse kind of a person …

“Although he developed a negative political profile in the past few years because of his sickness, he still has political aspirations, he has the ability to organise, but he is definitely not the favourite compared to other candidates who want that position,” Duvenhage said.

“Anything happens in the party. We might see some trade-offs between the two camps.

“So don’t write off anybody so early because where there is money, anything is possible.

“But I doubt if Mabuza will get the same position because the system has caught up with him.”

The fact that he has been dumped by both the RET and Thuma Mina groups had thrown Mabuza into the political wilderness. He would be lucky to be in the top six.

The Zuma-aligned RET camp decided to dump him after he sold them out and supported Ramaphosa for ANC president instead the RET’s then favourite Dlamini-Zuma at Nasrec in 2017.

Now, the Ramaphosa camp has also ditched him and some of its members are, instead, gunning for his position.

Mabuza ally also contesting

Queuing up to take over the position are Ramaphosa’s allies such as Justice and Correctional Services Minister Ronald Lamola, Human Settlements, Water and Sanitation Minister Mmamoloko Kubayi and Eastern Cape premier and provincial chair Oscar Mabuyane.

Paul Mashatile, a former Mabuza ally in the moribund premier league, was also contesting the position.

Last week, Mabuza made a rare trip to Zuma’s homestead Nkandla in what was seen as a move to solicit the former president’s endorsement for his candidacy. However, he failed to convince Zuma to trust him again.

Some said he also asked Zuma for forgiveness for embarrassing him at Nasrec.

Mabuza believed the ANC would lose the 2019 national election if Dlamini-Zuma won at Nasrec, because the voters wouldn’t like anyone with links to Zuma at the time.

ANC Msholozi branch, Zuma’s home branch, snubbed Mabuza by not including him on its list of nominees for top six.

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Instead, the structure – in addition to Dlamini-Zuma as its preferred presidential candidate – nominated low-key individuals, such as Eastern Cape-based Mlibo Qoboshiyane, a staunch Zuma supporter, as deputy president and suspended public protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane for deputy secretary-general.

Unsurprisingly, die-hard Zuma ally Supra Mahumapelo was nominated for secretary-general and Limpopo-based Danny Msiza as treasurer-general.

Political scientist Professor Dirk Kotzé said Mabuza was being ditched by the Ramaphosa camp because he had nothing to offer any more, as his Mpumalanga support was limited.

Those competing for his position saw an opportunity.

However, there was also a risk for the top six officials to lose constituency support because they were not in touch with the grassroots issues.

– ericn@citizen.co.za