Choices for ANC: Top choice would be a government of national unity

The ANC is letting opposing political parties play their hands before it cosies up to anyone officially.

That seems to be the message of the national working committee’s (NWC) statement yesterday, with the party noting it had determined three possible scenarios to present to the NEC today.

Government of national unity

Political analyst Dr Oscar van Heerden of the University of Johannesburg said based on the tone of the NWC’s media statement, the primary proposal is a government of national unity.

“It may not be in the same form as what we have seen before in South Africa, but rather be shaped around some form of multiparty government where a memorandum of understanding is executed by all party leaders agreeing on fundamental principles and party-political non-negotiables,” he said.

A source close to the ANC confirmed the DA and ANC were in talks again yesterday, but there are elements in the ANC channelling conversations, without a mandate, with Jacob Zuma, the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party leader.

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But Van Heerden said the NEC might want to entertain a different kind of configuration.

“There may be a question over whether the EFF [Economic Freedom Fighters] and ANC are able to find one another despite the red beret’s outlandish demands,” said Van Heerden.

Yet a pairing will only total 49%, so they would need a smaller party like the Inkatha Freedom Party, Rise Mzansi or the Patriotic Alliance to make it a threesome, he suggested.

“A two or three percent notch above 50% will be a comfortable position from which to lead the country,” he said.

“That will still be a better than having to deal with the new monster called MK. It clearly does not take a rocket scientist to see that they harvested many ANC votes, so there’s no love lost there.”

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ANC-MK affair unlikely

Wayne Duvenage of the Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse said an ANC-MK affair is unlikely.

“I cannot even imagine a scenario where Cyril Ramaphosa and Jacob Zuma settle their differences over a scotch, it’s just an absolute impossibility,” he said. “A partnership with MK will be a race to the bottom. Investors will flee, quickly.”

Van Heerden noted the ANC’s statement yesterday set the tone.

The party wrote its discussions “enriched the ANC perspective and further probed the implications of each option for South Africa and the ANC’s historic mission to build a united, nonracial, nonsexist, democratic, and prosperous South Africa for all”.

But all decisions will not be equal and some consequences may carry more baggage than others.

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Duvenage said the ANC might consider the many hands in the cookie jars of state coffers that politicians and civil servants alike have enjoyed over the years of majority rule.

DA partnership will invite scrutiny and demand transparency

A partnership with the DA will invite scrutiny and demand transparency and it might not be something that some NEC members would want.

Duvenage said: “Despite the party now messaging about a watershed moment and what’s best for the people of South Africa, they should have considered this over the past three decades when decisions were made, efficiencies were slowed down and cadres fed at the trough unrestrained.

“The ANC will have to contemplate how to undo all of this if it gets into bed with the DA and likely mull whether an EFF marriage would demand the same strain.”

Yet, said Van Heerden, if the EFF prove too challenging a foe, the NEC fall back will be a multiparty scenario.

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“There are two distinct schools in the ANC: Gwede Mantashe’s left view that feels it can work with its spawn, the EFF, and manage whatever fallout there may be.

“The other side is the Ramaphosa camp which is leaning toward a grand coalition with the DA.”

DA would be most stable partner

Van Heerden maintained that the DA would be the most stable partner for the ANC and noted the EFF’s rent-seeking style of politics, proven in local government, as an example.

“However, [EFF leader Julius] Malema has never held a position in the executive and placing him in a real position of responsibility might temper him and see a more responsible leader emerge,” he said.

He warned the EFF might be acutely aware it could be swallowed up if coopted into rule by the ANC. “Their numbers have already dwindled,” Van Heerden added.

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Duvenage said right now, talk is cheap. The people have spoken, and he hoped that what the ANC and DA were saying went beyond lip service.