An ANC member holds party flag in Johannesburg. Picture: Michel Bega
The reason behind ANC’s delay in dissolving Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal leadership structures is the succession battle, while the move to oust them is aimed at blocking Paul Mashatile from rising to succeed Cyril Ramaphosa.
Mashatile, who is ANC deputy president, and his backers within the national executive committee (NEC) are fighting to ensure Gauteng is not dissolved.
In the 2022 national conference, KZN supported Mashatile for deputy president.
Political analysts Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast from Nelson Mandela University’s Centre for Peace, Security and Conflict Resolution and Zakhele Ndlovu from the University of KwaZuluNatal attributed the NEC’s indecisiveness to the succession battle.
Ndlovu said Mashatile knew there was a faction preparing to contest him towards the elective ANC national conference in 2027.
“Fikile Mbalula, Zweli Mkhize and Gwede Mantashe are also eyeing the presidency.
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“The succession battles are at the heart of the ANC’s indecisiveness,” Ndlovu said.
Breakfast, who is director of the Centre for Peace, Security and Conflict Resolutions at Nelson Mandela University, said the ANC top brass was divided on the matter because some of them were eyeing who should be the next ANC president in 2027.
Ndlovu said Luthuli House should not blame the two PECs for its poor showing, but put the blame on the Zuma factor.
“We all know that the Zuma factor has everything to do with the ANC’s massive electoral loss.
“Many have criticised the ANC for taking long to act against the KZN and the Gauteng PECs, when it acted with speed to dissolve their counterparts in the Free State, North West and Western Cape.
“Those were easy targets because the provinces had minimal influence in the party electoral processes,” he said.
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Breakfast said the idea behind the push for the disbandment of Gauteng was to weaken it so that Mashatile’s campaign towards 2027 would also be weakened.
“I think they want to block a certain faction towards 2027, but the decision might embolden it.
The aim is to clip Mashatile’s wings so that he does not have access to Gauteng to campaign. They want to block his access to these provinces.”
However, it would achieve the opposite; they might be emboldened and made stronger to mobilise branches to support the person they want to block.
The expert said the reason for the ANC to reconfigure the leaderships of the two provinces was political and yet divisive.
According to ANC tradition, Mashatile, as deputy president, should succeed Ramaphosa.
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