Political landscape shifts as new parties spring up, squeezing ANC’s majority

With the ANC polling below 50% in the run-up to next year’s elections, the mushrooming of new parties marks a fragmented political landscape which may see the governing party being squeezed by the centrist and populist leftists in its midst, political analysts say.

Political experts Daniel Silke and Sandile Swana said while the defection of Carl Niehaus and other former ANC members to the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) carried less weight, former president Jacob Zuma’s significant announcement in support of the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party in the 2024 polls was set to make the retention of KwaZulu-Natal “impossible and more volatile”.

Said Silke: “What we are seeing is fragmentation taking place within the broader family of the ANC, with the birth of the EFF having marked the beginning of that fragmentation. “As we see tensions rising in moving towards the elections, we are witnessing further fragmentation in the centre of the political spectrum.

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Fragmented opposition

“The DA has also fragmented with newer political parties, representing similar overlapping interests to the party.

“We are seeing fragmentation in the radical economic transformation (RET) sector within the ANC, with the EFF gaining momentum.

“The story of Niehaus and others joining the EFF is less important, but Zuma campaigning for a new political party and the distance created between him and the ANC means we are seeing fragmentation at the RET level

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“It is a fragmented political landscape and the ANC itself is going to be losing a chunk of its support base to centrist political parties and to the RET side of the equation.

 “The ANC is going to be squeezed – both from the centrist and from the populist leftists in its midst.

Zuma’s impact on KZN

“The Zuma move is the most significant for the ANC – undermining the party in KZN, making the retention of the ANC in KZN impossible and more volatile.

“While Zuma has lost a substantial body of support over years, he remains a powerful symbolic figure in the KZN political arena.

“I expect KZN to be more combustible and more competitive than ever. With Zuma now campaigning against the ANC, we could see greater destabilisation of KZN, as we move into election time.”

Silke said Zuma’s public endorsement of the MK party would serve to “loosen the bond with the ANC– the hold the liberation movement has had over years on the electorate”.

“The emotional and historic struggle attachment the ANC has had in South Africa is now gone,” said Silke.

Concurring with Silke, Swana said Zuma was “an important factor, especially in KZN politics, with loyalists in the Eastern Cape, Limpopo and elsewhere”.

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“Prior to 2009, the ANC has been gaining votes – about 70%, but still without a solid majority in KZN. “When Zuma took power, the ANC gained 1.5 million votes and when he was removed the party lost millions of votes.

“Now that Zuma is no longer campaigning for the ANC – and is going his own way – there could a large chunk of votes following him in voting for MK.”

ANC Coalitions

“This could mean the ANC has to go into coalition with a Zuma-aligned party, while the EFF is also lining up to work with him in undermining the ANC and (President Cyril) Ramaphosa,” said Swana.

He added: “In terms of younger political parties, I expect the EFF and the Freedom Front Plus to grow. I expect the ANC to continue on its trend of decline.

“Some are also starting to accept that the Democratic Alliance of its own accord is also going to continue its decline. You are going to see a number of competing parties below 50%.

“I also expect the ANC to go below 50% in next year’s polls. New parties like Rise Mzansi have a duty to activate retired voters. I expect them to gain votes – Roger Jardine and Murphy Morobe’s Change Starts Now – to gain enough votes and seats in the National Assembly. “The beauty of these new parties, especially those that have the potential to attract black votes, is that they have a better chance of getting seats in parliament.”

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