ANC could use grants to shore up electoral support

The ANC is facing voter rebellion in the 2024 national election, as the public look for new political homes … but the ruling party will resort to using social grants to shore up its dwindling support.

This is the view of political analyst Goodenough Mashego, who said 2024 is a crunch year for the ruling party, which could not only lose Gauteng, but also KwaZulu-Natal, which could return to the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).

This view was shared by another analyst, Professor André Duvenhage, who said KZN could fall away from the ANC into the IFP hands. The ANC would need to pull out all the stops to ensure it got at least 50% in 2024.

Crunch time for ANC

“The ANC has lost momentum in terms of its support. It is looking at getting less than 40% and it is looking at forming an alliance with the EFF [Economic Freedom Fighters] and IFP,” Duvenhage said.

Major bones of contention have been load shedding and other service delivery lapses under the ANC.

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He said while Cyril Ramaphosa’s profile was currently stronger than that of the ANC, the president could not have managed to steer the sinking Titanic.

“The state is falling apart. We see disintegration, and nothing is working in the government, not a single area can we say is working well. They failed to fight corruption and they can’t even return the Guptas to SA to be prosecuted,”

Duvenhage said Mashego said the ANC would resort to playing political cards with social grants to shore up its support.

Mashego said the ANC would be confronted by dissenting voices in 2024 because its traditional voters would migrate to other parties to punish it for its failure to deliver on its promises. There may be huge apathy by ANC voters, while many could vote for any other party.

“Some may even vote for the DA [Democratic Alliance] to spite the ANC because also they saw the DA as being able to deliver better than the ANC,” Mashego said.

Apartheid card might no longer work

Duvenhage said 2024 will be difficult for the ANC. “This will be toughest election for the ANC since 1994. I think the ANC will be in a position to govern the country but it won’t govern alone,” Duvenhage said.

Mashego said the “born-frees” would be turning 30 and as they had never known apartheid, nobody could convince them to vote for the ANC. They won’t buy into any suggestion that unemployment or their life miseries are due to apartheid.

“These group have seen their peers getting employed because of their family and political connections. They will put the blame for their socioeconomic situation on the ANC. Those will not go out to vote for any other party; they will stay away from the polls,” Mashego said.

Some might even be attracted to the EFF because of the lifestyles lived by its leaders, such as Julius Malema.

What the ANC can do to lure voters

But “the ANC believes it has a couple of cards it can play, that include social grants. It could cut on social spending, such as healthcare, to be able to increase social grants to lure voters and give civil servants a whopping 7.5% wage increase,” Mashego said.

“The ANC can increase social grants and get a large chunk of those who get old age pensions, child support grants and disability grants.

“It is likely to secure a large chunk of those people because grants are associated with the government of the day. As it enjoys incumbency, there are those nuggets it can still throw such as social grants and the R350 for unemployed. It can only do that because I don’t think the ANC is capable of creating employment and creating more money to inject into the economy.”

– ericn@citizen.co.za

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