Eskom's Lethabo Power Station in Free State. Picture: Gallo Images/Business Day/Freddy Mavunda
It would take only about five more Eskom generating units to break down for South Africa to be plunged into a total blackout, according to energy expert Tshepo Kgadima, in the wake of the ongoing stage 6 load shedding implemented since last week.
Load shedding was the main talking point over the weekend with suggestions that the country had already reached stage 8 load shedding and not stage 6 as previously communicated by Eskom.
Several energy experts who spoke to The Citizen are of the opinion that stage 8 was indeed implemented, despite Eskom denying this.
In the recent supply and demand figures, Eskom said its availability power was standing at 24 179MW versus the total demand of 29 764MW.
Eskom announced late last week that unit 2 at Koeberg Power Station tripped due to problems with the feedwater pumps on the secondary circuit.
However, the unit in question has since synchronised to the grid ahead of Monday morning’s peak period.
According to Kgadima, should the supply dip below the 20 000MW mark, the country will definitely face a total blackout.
“In the event that five more units break down, we will definitely go below 20 000 MW, and this is a real possibility that can happen any day from now,” he said.
Kgadima does not believe the supply will outstrip the demand for electricity, stressing that once the supply drops to below 20 000MW, that could also lead to the switching off of transmission lines, which would have a similar effect to what happened when pylons outside Tshwane were vandalised, plunging the city into darkness.
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“It is also important to mention that Eskom’s system was never tested to run below 20 000MW,” Kgadima said.
A total collapse of the grid could spell disaster for the South African economy, water sector, mining, and hospitals.
Such an eventuality could also have dire effects on the water sector which is already adversely affected by the ongoing outages caused by load shedding as pumps either malfunction or even breakdown in some instances.
Most concerning, however, is the havoc it would wreak on the entire electricity supply grid itself.
A total blackout, or grid collapse, will be triggered when demand exceeds supply to such an extent that stability is sacrificed.
Load shedding is the current means to prevent this collapse, but if the instability reaches critical proportions, power stations would automatically start to disconnect from the grid as a safety measure.
Once enough power stations disconnect, the grid would quickly go completely dark, which would result in a weeks-long process to restore the system.
Power plants would have to be restarted and reconnected to the grid one-by-one, in order to ensure grid stability.
A total blackout would also increase incidents of Eskom infrastructure vandalism, as cable thieves would have a field day, according to Kgadima.
“The best security guard to Eskom’s infrastructure is having live wire all the time.”
Another energy expert Hilton Trollip says most of the power stations have been run too hard, undermaintained, and/or mismanaged.
“It’s a litany of woes connected to many of the wrong people being in their jobs, incompetence, wrongly appointed, downright corrupt, and by now staff morale is at a tipping point,” said Trollip.
Trollip is also of the opinion the country is in stage 8, saying it is stage 7 plus the cutting off of supplies to industry.
He says the worst that can happen from now on is a blackout, where demand exceeds supply because the reserve is smaller than the sudden large system events such as generators tripping or transmission system failures.
“There are 81 old and hammered generating units, some poorly designed and constructed and huge machines that have been over pressured for 15 years and half of them are offline and Eskom simply does not have enough people skills to maintain them.
“No generation utility would have that, the capacity to fix half its fleet at once and Eskom, the organisation has been hammered and is severely hampered by cadre deployment and corruption which, basically, Andre de Ruyter was booted out for facing up to,” said Trollip.
He said those 81 machines are unpredictable and unreliable and stressed the prognosis is that they will continue to break down more and more.
“Demand will go up when it is cold and so, inevitably, will load shedding and even the good news, the private customer contracted independent power producers (IPPs) of some 4 000MW that have been announced will only start taking pressure off the system in about a year.
“That’s the material, physical reality that no new committees, plans, ministers or, quite frankly anything can change in the next six months to a year and, what we do now to get new generation onto the system will always take six months to two years to start having an effect,” Trollip warned.
Last week Eskom appointed Bheki Nxumalo as Group Executive of Generation, effective immediately.
His career in the energy sector spans over 20 years, from junior to senior management and executive levels.
He is an all-round business leader comfortable in governance, people and technical aspects of the role, according to Eskom.
Nxumalo was the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Eskom Enterprise and Eskom Rotek Industries.
He also has extensive operating, power station management, and production experience.
Nxumalo was the power station manager at two of Eskom’s power stations and the general manager at Kusile Power Station.
Kgadima says he has doubts that Nxumalo’s appointment will help the ailing power utility.
“Nxumalo was given the position without authority and the heads of any division are glorified plugs. “When the so-called minister of electricity (electricity minister Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa) visited several power stations recently, not even the acting CEO of Eskom was there, nor were the heads of transmission and distribution.
“I doubt the new guy will be able to implement any real decision that can ensure he gets generation capacity up,” said Kgadima.
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He said the solution to Eskom’s woes lies with the CEO, saying the recruitment process is cloak and dagger.
“Eskom needs to engage in public interview processes where candidates will have to demonstrate clearly what practical plans they have to end this load shedding crisis.
“Eskom’s power grid was never designed and tested for power cuts and what Eskom is not telling us is how much they are spending on breakdowns… The grid was never put through a stress test (a switch on and off),” Kgadima added.
“The new electricity minister has merely cost us another five weeks and sowed confusion and misinformation,” Trollip added.
“The old plants can’t, and won’t be re-furbished for many reasons. Minister [Gwede] Mantashe’s ‘project manager’ has been given an impossible project.”
When asked for comment on the recent increased load shedding stages, acting spokesperson for Eskom Daphne Mokwena refuted claims that stage 8 was implemented.
“We have not implemented stage 8 and as previously communicated on Saturday, we will be on stage 6 until any significant changes occur.
“For our winter outlook we are preparing to host a media briefing and will inform media as soon as the date is set,” said Mokwena.
She added that the system however remains constrained as demand increases.
Meanwhile, Ramokgopa is reportedly going to present a plan to the African National Congress’ (ANC) National Working Committee (NWC) which was meeting in Limpopo on Monday, on how to deal with the load shedding crisis.
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