Picture: The Citizen / Michel Bega
After public power utility Eskom yesterday suspended a fresh bout of load shedding, which hit South Africa on Friday and Saturday, experts have cautioned against being optimistic about the future of uninterrupted energy supply.
Energy analysts Professor Sampson Mamphweli and Tshepo Mahlaba, cited the unpredictability of Eskom’s coal fleet optimism and old power stations, warning that the worst was yet to come.
The utility said it experienced “a temporary setback”, which forced it to implement a precautionary measure “due to several breakdowns, primarily at two of our flagship power stations, which required extended repairs”.
“This is to ensure that we maintain adequate reserves, allowing the power grid to remain reliable, stable and capable of handling unexpected challenges.
“This is to assist us to protect the grid in cases where there is a need to rapidly replace sudden capacity lost when generators trip or there is a sudden increase in demand,” said Eskom.
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The latest power stoppages came after 10 months of uninterrupted supply, with load shedding seen to belong to the past, due to the success of the generation recovery plan (GRP).
Eskom said the GRP led to structural improvements in the coal fleet and efficiency gains of R16.30 billion – saved in diesel costs, compared with the previous year.
According to Mamphweli, head of the energy secretariat at the SA National Energy Development Institute, Eskom’s coal fleet was “not predictable, especially the old power stations”.
On how Eskom had maintained a load shedding-free energy supply track record for over 300 days, Mamphweli said the entity had implemented the operations generation recovery plan, aimed mainly at fixing the coal fleet.
“The entity has also implemented the president’s energy action plan, which talks to fixing the existing coal power station, bringing in qualified power station managers, accelerating small-scale embedded generation and many other things that worked very well,” he said.
ALSO READ: UPDATE: Eskom suspends load shedding after replenishing reserves
He added: “Eskom has indicated that several units broke down in the past nine days. “There were also delays in the returning to service of some of the units. But the cause of this delay is not explained.
“However, some of the issues are related to environmental and water issues. Eskom previously indicated that it had about 4GW (gigawatt), that was supposed to return to service by December 2024 to January.
“It also indicated that it used up all its reserves, which necessitated the implementation of load shedding to replenish the reserves. By mid-January the EAF for the coal fleet was 59%, with some power stations operating around 70%. “With further breakdowns, it means that the EAF collapsed instead of improving and that became a problem.
“This goes against its summer outlook projections published last year, so it’s something it also did not expect.”
Said Mahlaba: “How do you explain that the load shedding was literally for less than 24 hours and now it is suspended?
“This is no indicator for optimism. The worst is yet to come when people will be buying electric vehicles, which will enable them to power their homes. “But Eskom is instead charging people for using solar.
“Eskom is on the right path to recovery by increasing the EAF, which had gone below 50% – by just maintaining its fleet.
“This is Eskom’s mandate anyway, not doing the country a favour. We are praising a dog for barking.”
Mahlaba maintained that it was “not load shedding that we are supposed to target, but the EAF to be above 85%.
“We celebrated too early. It is not a coincidence that this happened immediately when the National Energy Regulator of South Africa refused to grant Eskom a 36% increment,” he said.
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