‘Don’t praise Eskom’: Lower load shedding stages due to alternative energy, says analyst

The migration off Eskom’s power grid to alternative energy sources can be a reason for the recent lower stages of load shedding, according to energy and political analyst Tshepo Kgadima.

In contrast to the stage 6 experienced in recent months, load shedding in recent weeks has ranged between stage 1 and 3.

Briefing the media at the weekend, Electricity minister Dr. Kgosientso Ramokgopa said Eskom is now going through a recovery phase.

Ramokgopa said South Africa’s Energy Availability Factor (EFA) is currently sitting at 60%, up from about 48% before the last intervention.

ALSO READ: Ramokgopa confident load shedding will be less severe this winter as maintenance is ramped up

However, speaking to The Citizen, Kgadima said the 60% EFA is not something that should be celebrated, stressing that government must strive to bring the EFA to at least 75%, which will lower the need for investing in alternative sources for power.

“What Eskom needs to do, and should have been doing before, is to make sure that all the existing power stations are operating optimally,” said Kgadima.

He stressed that Eskom is only able to meet the current demand of 28 000MW because the demand for electricity has gone down.

Why demand for electricity is low

“More people including businesses have gone the route of sourcing alternative energy, not only due to the rolling blackouts that were experienced in recent months but also as a result of the high electricity tariffs.

“At the rate at which people are migrating to alternative power supply, a year from now, Eskom will supply no more than 25 000MW due to the way solar power has been assisting people during the day and also due to not having to pay for the exorbitant Eskom tariffs,” Kgadima said.

Alternative could bankrupt Eskom

“The situation could lead to bankruptcy in Eskom, besides the fact that the power utility is also sitting with power purchase agreements obligations of around 9 000MW.

“Eskom also has to borrow more money for Medupi and the repair work at Kusile power stations… so Eskom’s debts won’t go down anytime soon.”

Kgadima said with Ramokgopa being a deployee of the governing African National Congress (ANC), there is nothing positive he can do to increase the EFA.

“The minister is just trying to build up a political profile for the ANC but the public must not be fooled.

“The minister must tame his enthusiasm and must not buy more new capacity, as Eskom has all the capacity needed to keep the lights on,” Kgadima added.

ALSO READ: ANC supports Ramokgopa’s plans to deal with load shedding

When approached for comment on the recent lower stages of load shedding, Eskom spokesperson Daphne Mokwena said there are a number of factors that have relieved the pressure off the national power system.

These include:

• Customers reducing their consumption of electricity;
• Available generation capacity improving significantly over the past three weeks;
• Rapid increase in rooftop PV that has been installed across the country.

According to Mokwena, the high demand in the evenings still requires load shedding to be implemented as there is insufficient installed capacity of Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) to make up the entire shortfall.

She said both Eskom and the independently owned OCGT power stations have increased the diesel deliveries. 

“This has taken enormous effort throughout the supply chain, particularly from suppliers and transporters.”

Mokwena said the warmer than usual weather so far this winter has also resulted in lower than anticipated demand for electricity. 

“We have also had two long weekends and school holidays, all of which resulted in lower demand.”

‘Stage 8 still a possibility’

“A high demand for electricity for the remainder of winter will be determined largely by how cold weather sets in across the country in the coming weeks and what the generation capacity available will be when that occurs. 

“While less likely, given the current performance of the Eskom generation fleet, stage 8 load shedding is still a possibility this winter, but during the warmer period, stage 3 to 4 load shedding is to be expected while colder periods may increase this,” said Mokwena.

She said should a cold spell coincide with multiple generator breakdowns, high stages of load shedding may be necessary.