Expert: Energy availability factor is at 47% – the lowest it has been yet

Load shedding is actually at stage 7, rather than what Eskom calls stage 6, because its energy availability factor (EAF) has reached its lowest level yet of 47%, or less than half of the installed capacity of the grid, according to an expert.

Eskom’s average EAF has declined from 75% in 2014, to about 54% in 2023.

According to Daily Investor, in January, former Eskom chair Mpho Makwana stated it would take two years to improve the EAF to 70%.

He set targets of “60% EAF by 31 March 2023, 65% by 31 March 2024 and 70% by 31 March 2025”. Energy analyst Tshepo Kgadima said there were bound to be higher stages of load shedding when the EAF was at 47%.

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“I fail to understand why Eskom people might be surprised that we are at stage 6. If your energy availability factor is at 62%, you could get by with stage 1 load shedding. If the EAF is at 72%, there’s no load shedding,” he said.

“That tells us things have got far worse than they have been honestly telling than the nation.” The embattled power utility has announced stage 6 load shedding would continue until Monday.

Severe strain

Eskom said the escalation followed warnings that the grid was under severe strain. Eskom spokesperson Daphne Mokwena said the loss of five generating units over the past 24 hours resulted in a shortage of generation capacity and the need to replenish emergency reserves.

So stage 6 load shedding would be implemented from 12pm yesterday until 5am on Monday. Mokwena said unplanned outages were currently at 15 901 megawatts (MW) of generating capacity, while the capacity out of service for planned maintenance was at 5 822MW.

“Eskom teams are working tirelessly to ensure additional generating units are returned to service as soon as possible,” she said. Eskom’s forecast for the evening peak demand was 27 206MW.

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Kgadima said: “That’s why they said they will do stage 6 load shedding, which means they are short of 7 000MW. So they are understating the stage of load shedding as 6 when it’s actually stage 7.

“When a boiler breaks down you have to wait for 48 hours for it to cool down before you can even safely go into the boiler and start working on it. The number of units that are in breakdown – when can they safely work on those?

“They’re going to have to then try and bring back into service prematurely the units they had shut down for maintenance because they somehow had a figure of 6 000MW in planned maintenance. At the current rate, Eskom should have no more than 4 000MW planned maintenance.

“It gives us the 10 figure they talk about, which is the best practice of 10 of your fleet at any point in time will be in plant maintenance. So why would you have 6 000MW? The 6 000MW predicated will constitute almost 15% of the plants being shut down.”

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Kgadima said the unplanned capacity loss factor was too high as it should be below 10 000MW. He said the EAF must be 72% and the energy efficiency factor (EEF) must be 53%, not 29% as it was currently.

“When you have 29% EEF, you are invariably going to have a much lower EAF. “It is therefore not surprising that the EAF is 47% and the grade of this country has been designed solely to run on base load power,” he said.

Out of his hands

Some have called for the new Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa to step down, saying load shedding had worsened under his control, but Kgadima said there was no reason to expect Ramokgopa to have achieved anything because “his position is that of a glorified clerk”.

“Section 34 of the Energy Regulation Act has got nothing to do with Eskom. “It’s got to do with matters of electricity. But Eskom doesn’t feature that.

“So, what powers does he have over Eskom? In law – zero,” he said. “You can’t expect him to do anything because even if he wanted to do something, he can’t. He doesn’t have the powers in law to do anything.”

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In May this year, President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed that load shedding would end. In August, he made the bolder promise that the government was working hard to fix the energy crisis and load shedding would end by 2024.

ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula also said that “before the end of the year, load shedding should be something of the past”.

Energy specialist Lungile Mashele said she did not suspect there had been sabotage at the utility. Mashele said the ambient temperatures affected plant performance.