Eskom stumbling in the dark, while government ignores all load shedding solutions

Although government has the power to turn Eskom around, experts say Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe has ignored all solutions which would help end the power crisis, as load shedding is expected to continue for the next coming 10 days.

Eskom chief executive André de Ruyter said the power utility was currently facing total unplanned outages of 14,487MW and Eskom was forecast to have a capacity shortfall this week, with alternating load shedding stages to be introduced at various stages in the coming days.

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De Ruyter said there was light at the end of the tunnel as Eskom was expected to add substantial capacity over the next 18 to 24 months, which is expected to ease the load shedding burden on the country.

However, energy expert Chris Yelland said government and Eskom had more than a decade to talk through and address the challenges, but statistics have shown the situation was not improving.

“Medupi and Kusile are running eight years late, it’s now seven years later and Medupi has essentially been completed,” he said.

“But it’s performing very poorly and one of its units is not performing at all because it blew up. It’s running on about half of what it should.”

Yelland said according to a recent study report by Meridian Economics, published on 13 June, with the absence of further urgent and drastic interventions, load shedding in 2023 may see up to a four-fold increase compared to 2021; up to five-fold in 2024, four-fold in 2025 and up to 10-fold in 2026, all when compared to 2021, the worst load shedding year on record so far.

“It makes it clear that if we had 5000MW of wind and solar power which was blocked during the time of Eskom CEOs Brian Molefe and Matshela Koko, load shedding last year would’ve been reduced by 95%,” he added.

Yelland said there were very significant delays by Mantashe in procuring new generation capacity.

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If it weren’t for those delays, SA would not be in the position it currently was, escalating from national crisis to national disaster.

Yelland proposed a national priority project to build 10 000MW of renewable energy and 5 000MW of battery storage in two years, with homes doing their part by adding 10% of the 15GW to the grid.

He said although the plan was rough and the exact breakdown and timing must still be refined, it was achievable.

“Detailed modelling shows conclusively that if executed properly and on time, the national priority project proposed will stop load shedding in its tracks and provide adequate generation capacity reserve that will serve South Africa in good stead,” he said.

“The starting point should be a simple, clear statement of national intent by government, Eskom, metro municipalities and customers of electricity, namely: to end load shedding fast.”

Energy expert Ted Blom said Eskom was not transparent and honest in its dealings with the public and also lacked a proper recovery plan to save the power utility from the mess it was currently in.

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Blom said Eskom acknowledged it can’t solve the problem alone.

However, it was also not willing to listen to experts who were able to bring about a turnaround plan which will dig SA out of this electricity crisis.

“President Cyril Ramaphosa is contradicting himself. He says we shouldn’t be in a mess like this because we’ve got all the resources and then he’s promising another plan in two weeks,” he added.

“How can we trust them when they are changing their story every two minutes? “I don’t trust them and I don’t believe, them including the president.”