Mantashe’s tribalism argument dismissed by analysts

With ANC chair Gwede Mantashe attributing an early, solid uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party’s election results in KwaZulu-Natal to tribalism – and another political newcomer, the Patriotic Alliance (PA), making inroads in the Western Cape – political analysts yesterday denied South Africa was headed for an ethnically fractured state.

Addressing journalists at the IEC results operations centre in Midrand yesterday, Mantashe said he was surprised by the performance of the ANC in KZN following an early vote count showing a strong support for MK.

ALSO READ: MK party’s KZN success shows ‘Zulu tribalism’- Mantashe

Earlier indications in KZN were that MK led with 43%, the ANC trailing at 20%, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 19% and the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 10%.

Most agree not the case

While Stellenbosch University political science professor Amanda Gouws described MK as “dangerous” – conceding that tribalism was a challenge in current South African politics – some experts shrugged of ethnicity as leading SA to a fractured state.

“The rise of ethnic politics in Africa, where parties vote on ethnic grounds, does not end well – lots of violence and conflict.

“If MK rules KZN, it will lead to unstable coalitions. MK wants to get rid of the constitution and parliament,” Gouws said.

She said PA leader Gayton McKenzie was “interested in going to parliament, and there will be conflict between the PA and the DA”.

Another political analyst, Melanie Verwoerd, said MK was only going to change the face of politics in KZN, “having been projected to become one of the biggest parties in that province”.

She added: “It will have a big impact in that province. But in the Western Cape, the PA is nothing as big as MK in KZN.

“The PA has been putting pressure on the DA majority in the Western Cape.”

ALSO READ: Tribalism: An ambiguous tool for tools

While MK and PA had “strong ethnic bases, mobilising around ethnic issues”, Verwoerd said it did not translate to “a more fractured state yet”.

Prof Dirk Kotze of the Unisa political science faculty, said SA was politically polarised “but socially less fractured”.

He added: “In KZN, the identity of politics from the IFP, ANC and MK, has remained the same. MK is now a factor, more than what was predicted in KZN. While a dominant factor in KZN, the CSIR [Council for Scientific and Industrial Research] projected that MK support could stand at 14% nationally, also more than what was predicted by opinion polls.

“The PA, according to the CSIR stands at 2%, nationally. [It] might do well in the interior of the Western Cape, but that is not where the numbers are. Numbers are around Cape Town. Nationally, the PA is not effective compared to the Western Cape.”

MK has a strong support base

Independent political analyst Sandile Swana said MK was “a strong contender, with a strong Zulu cultural dimension and a strong support base” from disgruntled ANC supporters.

“It has now taken a huge chunk of support from the ANC. In terms of CSIR projections, we expect the ANC to come in at 41.7%,” he said.

Reflecting on the Western Cape Swana said the coloured vote was “somehow consolidating under the PA than the Good party”.

He added: “The DA has historically been the political home of the Western Cape coloured community – regardless of whether they’ve benefitted from that or not.”

ALSO READ: MK party smells blood in KZN: Supporters stage mock funeral for ANC [VIDEO]

PA head of strategy Charles Cilliers said they were “very humbled” by gaining more voter support.

Asked about traditionally campaigning in coloured communities, he said: “We’re a broad-based party, which started mobilising in coloured communities – not meaning we are a coloured party.

“We are a colourful community, especially if you look at our Gauteng premier candidate Kenny Kunene, who has roots in the Free State Sesotho community.

“All our premier candidates are represented by all race groups. Regionally, we’re highly represented in the Western Cape and hope to be having a good showing in Gauteng,” said Cilliers.