Last-ditch campaigns fail to sway voters, says expert

With a few days left in the run-up to South Africa’s watershed polls, a top political scientist yesterday said voters could no longer be swayed by mass rallies or door-to-door visits as they have already made up their minds on where their political loyalties lie.

Political parties are spending the remaining days before the elections on Wednesday next week intensifying their last-ditch push to woo voter support.

From offering the electorate free laundry and hair-cuts, and spending time in their homes, to major rallies in stadiums, their efforts have known no bounds in what is expected to be hotly contested elections for the national and provincial legislatures.

Voters already made up their minds

While some experts believe this last push is likely to have an impact on undecided voters, University of South Africa political science professor Dirk Kotzé said no amount of campaigning would work because voters have already made up their minds about who to vote for.

ALSO READ: Election countdown: Undecided voters hold the key, say experts

“It is now so late in the election campaign that it would be highly unlikely for any party to really convince the electorate to vote in a certain way,” Kotzé said.

“Campaigning now can only serve to affirm what people have already decided and will not change their choices.”

Reflecting on the independent candidates, he described them as “disappointing”.

“While a lot of noise has been made about independents, they have been quite disappointing in campaigning, with very few qualified to take part in these elections,” he said.

“The 11 independents are a far cry – far lower in number than what was expected.

ALSO READ: ‘Grants won’t sway votes in ANC’s favour’

“Except for activist Zackie Achmat, there are no high-profile people among the independents; people who can make an impact in their own right.

“Anele Mda may be another, but she is not in the same league as Achmat,” said Kotzé.

Independents are in for a long haul

Activist and film director Achmat is co-founder of the Treatment Action Campaign, known globally for his activism on behalf of people living with HIV and Aids in South Africa.

Mda is a gender, justice, transformation and diversity guru, who has addressed global seminars and corporate dialogues.

“While the Constitutional Court outcome on independents has been hailed, they are in for a long haul, because they compete against political parties – not against other individuals,” Kotzé said.

ALSO READ: Report shows SA’s shocking voter apathy

“At local government ward level, there are two categories – those contesting as independents and individuals nominated by their parties.

“They stand as the person and not the party – placed in an unfair and imbalanced situation, where the playing field is not level.”

He said the newly established MK (uMkhonto we Sizwe) party on it own would not drag the ANC to below 50%.

ANC voter decline traced to service delivery record

Independent political analyst Sandile Swana said scholarly research pointing to ANC voter decline could be traced to its service delivery record.

“The outcome of previous polls has reflected a decline in ANC weaknesses, like service delivery, a stagnant economy and a lack of job creation.

ALSO READ: ‘Zuma to use ethnicity to woo voters, especially in KZN’

“Votes are not determined by short-term experiences – an excitement that could be generated in a mass rally – but in people’s day-to-day experiences, whether those reflect a higher standard of living or a higher quality of life.

“Since the ANC national conference in Polokwane [in 2007] and the [2007-2008] global financial crash, South Africa has never seen an economic recovery.

“Performance under ANC rule has been poor, and there have been scandals implicating senior people in public office without consequences.

“You cannot reverse a longterm trend, based on people’s dayto-day experiences,” said Swana.