DA, MK party have made gains, while the ruling party is losing ground – survey

The ANC government is very much aware this time around it is unlikely to get 51% of votes, according to political analyst Lesiba Teffo from Unisa.

He said the ruling party was preparing for possible coalitions indirectly and underground.

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This follows a Brenthurst Foundation’s election survey conducted by SABI Strategy in February and March, which showed the Democratic Alliance (DA) and uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party made solid gains, while the ANC was losing ground.

The survey found the DA was the only party to increase its share to 27%, from 23% in October 2023.

It also stated voters appear to have left the ANC, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) for the MK party in significant numbers, and that MK party was set to overtake the EFF, which is at 10% of the vote to MK’s 13%.

Loss of ANC support

Political analyst André Duvenhage from North-West University said surveys over the past year were indicating a loss in support for the ANC.

“As we have also seen in the 2021 local elections [when] the national support base of the ANC dropped to 47. 5%,” he said.

“The most recent survey reflected even before MK was established, that ANC support dropped to a level below 40%.”

Duvenhage noted that the MK party was making inroads in the support base of the ANC.

“I think the DA also gained a bit but it’s not a huge component. What I am picking up from the survey is that the DA may get some support from the coalition partners.”

However, another political analyst, Ntsikelelo Breakfast, did not agree that the DA had gained momentum.

He noted MK party stood a chance to benefit because “it targets the same audience the ANC pitches its message to”.

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The survey also indicated a coalition government might be formed in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.

“In Gauteng, the DA has risen from 24% in October last year to 32%, while the ANC has declined from 37% to 34%.

“The Multi-Party Charter (MPC) coalition, which consists of the DA, IFP, ActionSA, Freedom Front Plus, and ACDP, among others, had 38% of the vote.

“In KwaZulu-Natal, MK party was set to be the largest party with 25% of the vote and the ANC at 20% and DA at 19%. The total vote for the MPC is 39%,” the survey found.

Duvenhage said coalition politics was a difficult exercise under South African circumstances, where this produced extreme identity politics leading to conflict and instability.

“I think the biggest influence will most probably be in Gauteng but it will depend on their ability to extend their coalition,” he said.

“Because at the moment, their support base cannot achieve an absolute majority and they need the buy-in of other stakeholders.”

MPC needs collective support

Duvenhage said the MPC must find major challenges in all parties and what was important was their collective support.

“I am not that sure that the IFP is completely committed to the [MPC].

“If there’s for the IFP opportunities to become part of KZN, a coalition involving ANC and MK in terms of black consciousness within the context of a Zulu identity, I think there may be room for them to leave,” he said.

Breakfast said dominance by a single party was a thing of the past.

He said the ANC was hit with a blow, especially in urban areas, and the “ushering of the MK party has compounded the situation”.

Teffo said IFP and MK party had a strong chance of forming a coalition and said IFP has always indicated readiness and willingness to go into a coalition.

Over half of the survey’s respondents believe the ANC government of the past three decades is to blame for the country’s problems.