Be afraid, very afraid of smaller parties, ANC – analyst

The ANC could take a knock from the smaller parties whose leaders were previously aligned to the ruling party, because they are competing for the same voters in the upcoming elections, a political expert warned.

Political analyst Lesiba Teffo cautioned the ANC not to take African Transformation Movement (ATM), of which former government spokesperson Mzwanele “Jimmy” Manyi is a member, and the African Content Movement (ACM), led by former SABC chief operating officer Hlaudi Motsoeneng, for granted.

Teffo said these parties could inflict terrible damage to the ANC at the May 8 elections and contribute to a reduced majority.

Small as they appear, the parties could usurp the ANC’s disgruntled membership and could contribute to the ANC getting less than 60%.

Teffo highlighted the fact that the ATM was even more dangerous because it enjoyed the support of some leaders from independent churches, who had begun to mobilise their congregations.

The ATM is backed by a church led by Bishop John Bolana, a vocal supporter of former president Jacob Zuma.

Another party established by disgruntled ANC members is KwaZulu-Natal-based African Freedom Revolution (AFR), whose leader, Bishop Timothy Ngcobo, is also linked to Zuma. Ngcobo, who recently denounced the ANC as his political home, is also the KZN secretary of the National Interfaith Council of SA.

Some leaders of independent churches defended Zuma during the troubled times he was facing, while some of them even anointed him as a pastor.

Referring to the ATM and ACM in particular, Teffo said the performance of the two parties would definitely affect the ANC negatively.

“They are the ANC catchment group. They are located in the countryside where the rural voters are easily persuaded by personalities, emotions, historical loyalties and [food] hampers. This is unlike in the urban centres, where the middle class cannot be lured by hampers.

“The ANC is likely to take a knock and be negatively impacted by these parties,” Teffo said.

“The ATM is the party to watch. I think it is likely to get support because it is aligned to the churches. The voice of the bishop has an influence and if he says vote for this party, the congregants will do that. The membership is prone to listen to their spiritual leader.”

The middle class vote was most likely to shift against the ANC because they would be questioning its inaction against those found to morally and ethically wanting.

Teffo said the inclusion on the ANC candidates list of senior party leaders who were found to be morally wanting and those found by courts of law to have lied under oath would definitely affect its electoral performance.

“Because of the factions, President Cyril Ramaphosa is not able to act. He would rather opt for a reduced majority, hoping that his unity project will ultimately prevail,” Teffo said.

“I can’t see the ANC reaching 60% in this election.”