No, Cele, drop in crime isn’t due to alcohol ban – experts

Reduced alcohol consumption, one of the most contentious factors of South Africa’s lockdown, was not the main contributor to the country’s lower crime numbers, according to experts.

But Police Minister Bheki Cele’s recent statements have dashed all hopes that government would relax the recent ban on the sale of alcoholic beverages, one of the most drastic conditions of the current lockdown.

The push for South Africans to stop drinking alcohol, ostensibly because it affected the crime rate, was thematic in Cele’s public rhetoric from the onset of the lockdown. This led to various arguments by critics and supporters, including political parties, on whether the correlating decline in violent crimes really meant that closing the taps was literally saving lives.

AfriForum’s Ian Cameron was among a chorus of Cele’s critics, saying he was, at best, spreading misinformation because he was misinterpreting data and, at worst, blatantly lying to South Africans.

“I think it would be a gross misrepresentation to say that alcohol is the reason for high crime rates in South Africa. This just indicates how misinformed our police minister is.

“Obviously, we cannot expect the crime rate to stay the same when there are far more police checkpoints all over the place,” said Cameron.

He added that the increased reports in domestic violence, for instance, showed that alcohol was not the only driver of violence in the country.

However, police spokesperson Vish Naidoo repeated Cele’s view that reduced boozing was key to crime control.

“We have been saying that one of the major crime generators has been alcohol, especially with regards to contact crimes, murders, attempted murders, assault GBH, rapes, etc. These statistics have gone down significantly, predominantly because of the ban on alcohol.”

But according to Institute for Security Studies crime expert Dr Johan Burger, although some crime could be directly linked to the sale and consumption of alcohol, it was not correct to say this was the only, or even the biggest, contributing factor to South Africa’s violent crime trends.

Police and military visibility in the streets and reduced social gatherings were more likely behind most of the downward trends in the country’s crime statistics, he added.

“We know alcohol does contribute to a lot of violence and crime, especially in places where it is sold or where people gather to drink. That is where people get serious injuries and die.

“High numbers of murders, especially in the Western Cape, happened in and around shebeens and because of alcohol consumption,” said Burger.

“But we know, for example, that 15-20% of violent deaths can be attributed to aggravated robberies and a number of conditions, including taxi violence, vigilante acts and gang activity, contribute.

“Part of the reduction we are seeing in the crime rate can be attributed to the reduction in the sale of alcohol. Alcohol is still being consumed in homes but it is a more controlled use.”

– simnikiweh@citizen.co.za

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