Covid-19 infection numbers in decline and second wave unlikely, insists doctor

With the Covid-19 infection rate showing signs of a decline, a health expert has maintained that South Africa has no reason to be concerned about “a second wave” of the global pandemic. At the same time, a leading economist has urged President Cyril Ramaphosa to reopen the economy, which has suffered in excess of a trillion rands in losses.

While Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize yesterday conceded in an interview with the SA Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) that the country was turning the corner – with a decline in the daily infection rate, all provinces moving towards stability, quicker testing results being achieved, a 74% rise in recoveries and public hospitals no longer overwhelmed by patient numbers – Mkhize also cautioned about a possible “second wave of the virus”.

During the SABC interview, Mkhize hinted government would tread carefully for the next two to three weeks until new infections ran at less than 1,000 a day, before any major lockdown relaxation could be introduced.

Responding to fears over “a second wave”, Tygerberg Hospital infectious disease specialist and University of Stellenbosch academic Dr Jantjie Taljaard described the use of the phrase “second wave” as “a very dramatic way of putting it”.

“One can obviously expect that there will be a second increase in numbers due to decreased awareness of infection control and opening up of social and economic restrictions.

“But the chances that those numbers will be higher than the initial peak are very slim. I don’t think we will have a worse situation during the so-called second wave, or any other wave than might occur over time.”

A front-line clinician at the Tygerberg Hospital, Taljaard echoed Mkhize, saying that there was a steady decline in the spread of the coronavirus.

“In the Western Cape, once the epicentre of the virus – and specifically here at the Tygerberg Hospital – we have begun to see fewer patients in the wards and our [intensive care unit] is becoming less occupied.”

Economist Mike Schussler, who said the decline in the country’s infection rate was “the best news ever”, urged Ramaphosa – expected to make a public announcement this week on government’s Covid-19 plans – “to reopen South Africa’s battered economy” he said had suffered in excess of a trillion rands in losses.

“Government should have opened the economy a long time ago,” said Schussler.

“Hospital cases have been coming down and I think there is a lot of evidence pointing out that countries that did not lockdown – here I am not just talking about Sweden, but Uruguay, Taiwan, Vietnam and those with a soft or short lockdown, like Mauritius – have done very well.

“Those with a heavy lockdown like South Africa have suffered tremendously. We have to say that we are through the worst. We did not have the 100,000 cases a day type Dr Zweli Mkhize’s announcement this week that the peak could have been reached by the four provinces with the highest Covid-19 infections – Gauteng, Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. He said there was a general drop in the daily figures for both infections and deaths in SA. He was hopeful about the Eastof hospitalisation, but got to just about a tenth of that.

“So, yes, the president should open up the economy to get the people working, but keeping social distancing. Open up every industry: tourism, gymnasiums, alcohol, cigarettes and get those flights going because we also need an operational air freight business, which does not work without passenger flights.

“If you look at the latest manufacturing numbers, you are talking about a sector that is 30% down in a quarter, which is huge.”

– brians@citizen.co.za

For more news your way, download The Citizen’s app for iOS and Android.