DA pulls ahead in Tshwane

A torched truck in Tshwane following violent protests in Atteridgeville. Photo: Steven Tau

A torched truck in Tshwane following violent protests in Atteridgeville. Photo: Steven Tau

According to the most recent Ipsos voter poll, the recent unrest in the capital has turned more voters against the ANC.

The weekly survey of voters commissioned by eNCA and performed by respected polling company Ipsos has delivered devastating news for the ruling party.

The gap has grown substantially in the capital, with the DA now leading by a massive 42% and the ANC trailing by a full 19 percentage points and is languishing on 23%.

DA supporters have understandably been very excited.

The DA also made minor gains in the race for Johannesburg.

In Nelson Mandela Bay, the challengers have also pulled ahead a bit:

Oddly enough, the Economic Freedom Fighters also suffered some negative sentiment in Tshwane in the wake of the protests, despite having nothing much to do with it. It gained somewhat in Joburg and Nelson Mandela Bay, however.

Ipsos does telephonic interviews with voters, and this week polled about 1 400 of them in a randomised, representative sample. Despite the sample being only a fraction of the millions of people who will ultimately vote, Ipsos’s methods have shown remarkable reliability in the past, though cannot be relied on in cases when the outcome is too close too call, such as in Joburg.

The company said that they had noticed that Johannesburg mayor Parks Tau (ANC) was marginally more popular among voters than Herman Mashaba (the DA candidate) despite the DA as a party being viewed more favourably overall.

Rather infamously, the polls indicated that last week’s Brexit vote would be to Remain.

For example:

It turned out that Britain voted to leave the EU, so polls are, of course, nothing more than indicators and, with just more than a month to go until elections, much can still change.



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