SA should use Putin’s decision ‘to reflect’ on its own instruments of development

While the South African government can breathe a sigh of relief over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to no longer come to South Africa to attend next month’s Brics leaders’ summit, experts are divided, with some warning that US-backed sanctions could be imposed in the future.

Months of diplomatic undertakings have involved South African, Russian and American government officials, with SA working to prevent a fallout with the US and other Western countries over a call by the International Criminal Court to arrest Putin for violating its Rome Statute, which was established to address international war crimes and aggression.

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“By mutual agreement, President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation will not attend the summit,” the Presidency said.

“The Russian Federation will be represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. In due course, a comprehensive statement on the substantive issues to be covered at the summit and other related foreign policy matters will be issued.”

Arresting Putin

President Cyril Ramaphosa said in an affidavit that if South Africa arrested Putin, it would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Russia.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was asked if the war wording was used in talks between the two nations. “No, it did not sound that way,” he said.

“In this world, it is absolutely clear to everyone what an attempt to encroach on the head of the Russian state would mean. That is why there is no need to explain anything to anyone on this,” Peskov said.

SA Communist Party general secretary Solly Mapaila lauded the Russian leader for being “a statesman” amid the raging geopolitical storm.

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He said: “President Putin has demonstrated an understanding of the situation faced by South Africa at the highest level of statesmanship. No single country in the world can think of arresting President Putin.

“It is not just a question of semantics to say that Russia is a big world power – unless the US can demonstrate they still have more nuclear warheads than Russia, with more than 40 000. Who can touch Russia?

“From a scientific development level, Russia is on the same level with the US, which is ganging up with its European partners to weaken Russia.

“South Africa should use this lesson of President Putin not having been able to come here to attend the Brics summit on behalf of his own country to reflect on its own instruments of development; on what could have been the reason for him not to come.

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“We don’t have a public banking system in this country – not a single bank owned by the state that we can go to, open a bank account and transact. All major private banking systems are controlled by two instruments – European-controlled Visa and US-controlled Mastercard,” Mapaila said.

“The West would have sanctioned us not to transact through our banks. Imagine if Putin were to insist on coming here; we would not have stopped him or had a capacity to arrest him.

“It would have been crazy to declare war on Russia.”

Trade relationships

University of Johannesburg associate economics professor Peter Baur said the local economy was “highly dependent” on trade relationships that exist between SA and its trading partners.

“Given the global changes post the beginning of [the Ukraine invasion], investors have begun seeking lower-risk markets.

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“Thus, many of the global emerging markets have gained in terms of new trade relationships. It is critical that SA builds an environment that mitigates risk so as to maintain an environment that builds confidence between international investors and institutions during such times of global economic challenges,” he said.

‘Big sigh of relief for SA’

Institute for Global Dialogue senior research associate Sanusha Naidu said Putin’s unavailability translated into “a big sigh of relief for South Africa and the people who had to make a decision if he arrived”.

“Let us now take a moment to breathe. It should not come as a surprise that Putin is not coming to South Africa, given the current geopolitical situation.

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“It is not only our stance on the Ukraine war that will make us be kicked out of Agoa (the US’ African Growth and Opportunity Act), there are other matters.

“SA is a middle-income country and eligibility to Agoa has always been whether we qualify because we are a middle-income country,” said Naidu.

– brians@citizen.co.za; additional reporting by AFP