New poll shows rising EFF and Multi-Party Charter support as ANC’s majority slips

If elections were to be held tomorrow, the ANC will not achieve an outright majority, states the latest opinion poll.

In its key findings, the survey conducted by the Brenthurst Group found that:

Parties of the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) have a combined total support of 36% and are ahead in KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape and Gauteng.

A vast majority of respondents (74%) will be happy to see a coalition of parties govern South Africa.

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President Cyril Ramaphosa’s favourability rating has fallen since November 2022 – from 48% to 42%.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has gained support from 11% in November 2022 to 17%.

Most respondents hold the ANC government responsible for South Africa’s problems. These include load shedding, crime and corruption.

Close to a quarter of South Africans (24%) are more likely to vote for an opposition party after the launch of the MPC.

A total of 80% of respondents said they were certain to vote in 2024 with six percent not voting and two percent being uncertain.

Vote breakdown

Predicting an ANC vote at 41%, Democratic Alliance (DA) at 23%, MPC (36%), EFF (17%) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 7%, the survey expected a coalition government after next year’s polls to be “more likely than 12 months ago, with ANC support dropping from 48% to 41%”.

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“The ANC faces serious political competition with the formation of the MPC, an alliance of opposition parties that includes the DA, IFP, Action SA and FF+, with a five-point difference between the combined vote of the MPC and the ANC.

“Although the MPC had been in existence for less than two months at the time of this survey, half of the respondents recognised its brand.

“A quarter of respondents said they were more likely to vote for an opposition party following the launch of the MPC.

“This suggests there may be significant voter support… for the MPC and greater clarity on its policy focus and narrative.

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“Rising support for the EFF and declining support for the ANC portends a greater possibility of an EFF-ANC coalition, raising questions for the moderate centre about its political options,” stated the survey.

Picture looks ‘convincing’

University of South Africa political science professor Dirk Kotze said while the provincial picture looked convincing, with the prediction “close to the reality”, he had reservations about the national outcome.

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“The voter turnout of 80% is very high, considering that the turnout in the last elections was in the high 60s – normally sitting at around 70%.” he said.

“The voter turnout into a much higher percentage is unlikely and not a realistic presentation of the situation in the country.”

ANC vote ‘slightly low’

Referring to support for various parties, Kotze said the average expected ANC vote of 41% appeared to be slightly low.

“I am not sure if it will go so low, but I do not have evidence to the contrary. In the past, a low voter turnout was beneficial for the DA and detrimental to the ANC.

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“A high voter turnout was always beneficial to the ANC in relation to the DA, which in the past has always been able to better mobilise its supporters than the ANC in the last elections.

“The ability of the DA to better mobilise its supporters by 10% more in its favour, was what we saw in the last polls,” he said.

– brians@citizen.co.za