Wagner’s move against Moscow more of a throw of dice

Russian oligarch Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin eventually got to a position in his internal conflict with the Russian army/siloviki that he was left with no other choice but to act to save himself.

Prigozhin’s profile is that he is both an extreme risk taker and a self preservationist. So the move against the city of Voronezh and Moscow wasn’t a binary coin toss, more of a throw of the dice, with overthrow of Russian President Vladimir Putin needing a double-six.

From public sources, it is visible Prigozhin’s Wagner Group received enthusiastic support in some areas and quiet compliance in others. This is indicative of a general Russian population with little incentive to support any of the main domestic players.

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However, it’s clear that during the move to Moscow, Prigozhin failed to raise any significant political support or army defections. Reliably sourced information indicates that, at best, Prigozhin was able to muster a maximum of 4 000 troops to move on Moscow … having units of the army defect would have been a necessity for any possibility of success.

There were indications of the possibility of a break in that direction but, on balance, Prigozhin’s brand of right-wing thuggery was probably too much for even those opposed to Putin to stomach.

The positive aspect to be taken from this is that the army didn’t wholeheartedly declare behind the Putin regime, rather they adopted a watching brief, with the implication that they could have got behind an insurrection in support of it.

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So it looks like Prigozhin threw himself a double-four and was politically adept enough to maintain the pressure and hold his bluff for long enough to cut a deal and escape, leaving Wagner troops behind to the control of the Russian Army.

Not a great demonstration of leadership qualities. The future of his Wagner troops under army command looks bleak.

One exile personality who managed to have a poor throw of the dice is Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Coming out far too quickly in support of Prigozhin is perhaps an example of taking the maxim “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” a little too far.

This position on social media has been interpreted as a demonstration that Khodorkovsky is too hungry for both revenge and power, regardless of the circumstances and definitely damages any image he may so far have created as a proponent of a free and democratic Russia.

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Prigozhin’s failed attempt to move on Moscow may also have been something of a shock to Western governments. The analysis being discussed on Sunday news programmes is that Western leaders would prefer to have a stable transition of power in nuclear-armed Russia.

While the failure of Prigozhin’s attempt may lead to feelings of relief in Western circles, the opportunity should not be missed to understand that the notion of a stable transfer of power post Putin in Russia is virtually impossible.

There’s a saying there are three types of people in the world:

• Those who make things happen;
• Those who watch things happen; and
• Those who wonder what the hell happened;

Over recent days, it’s been apparent that the Western powers are in danger of falling out of the second category in to the third.

So, what are the conclusions from recent events?

• The road to Moscow is open and the route far shorter from the northeast of Ukraine than from Rostov;
• The Russian establishment is fractured and vulnerable;
• The Russian population are likely to be acquiescent to any such attempt; and
• Elements of Russian Army may be willing to step off the fence and join such an offensive.

If we accept that there is no easy way to effect a change of government in Moscow, then standing back and relying on disparate elements like Wagner Group to lead an insurrection is perhaps the single most irresponsible decision that Western governments can make.

While there is still time, it’s vital that Western governments throw their complete support behind the exile Russian government and Free Russian Army to make sure that they are legitimate and will have recruited, armed and trained as many as 50 000 exiles ready to step in to the inevitable vacuum that will occur as the current Russian establishment implodes.

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Fail to do this and they will inevitably find themselves asking: what the hell happened? Up until this point, bereft of any real support from Western governments, the Free Russians have pursued a policy of trying to obtain financial support from exiled Russian oligarchs and Putin opponents.

Khodorkovsky’s announcements on social media show the political limitations of this course of action and Western governments should consider directly financing the Free Russians where possible.

The weekend’s events demonstrate the vulnerability of the Russian establishment and are a warning that we are not well enough prepared for what follows. There is an urgency to resolving this position.

-Mashaba is a political analyst