US-Taiwan ties in limbo as Trump weighs his options

US President Donald Trump is yet to make his position clear with regard to Taiwan because, unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, who was pro-Taiwan and anti-China, Trump is unpredictable on diplomatic issues.

If, this time around, his relations with China promise transactions that would benefit the United States, he could shift his stance and demand that Taiwan makes peace with China to become one nation, perhaps with autonomy, similar to Hong Kong and Macau.

He took this approach towards Ukraine where instead of releasing dollars and big guns to support Kyiv against Russia, he encouraged both Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s Vladimir Putin to end the bloody war.

Of course, Taiwanese politicians might not like this. In that case, Trump might act like he did with Zelensky and pressure Taiwan to conform.

Since Trump returned to the White House with even more conservative policies, he has not yet clarified his stance on Taiwan.

ALSO READ: South Africa knows its real friend between China and Taiwan

The question remains whether Trump’s return would encourage Taiwan to assert its self-declared status as a sovereign state.

South Africa has decided to relocate the Taiwan liaison office from Pretoria to Johannesburg, effectively downgrading it from a semi-diplomatic office to a commercial one.

This decision is grounded in South Africa’s commitment to the One-China principle.

Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory and the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China.

Local analyst, Dr Jan Venter from NorthWest University, suggests that Trump’s unpredictability could lead him to adopt either a positive or negative stance toward Taiwan, depending on the transactional benefits the US might gain from that relationship.

ALSO READ: Suspected gas explosion kills four at Taiwan department store

If China were to offer cooperation with the US in exchange for benefits, despite the ongoing trade war, then it would be tough luck for Taiwan.

Venter also notes that Trump prioritised Israel, which he viewed as “untouchable” and that Washington will protect at all costs.

“He really sees that in defending Taiwan, what can he gain? He might think that if he sends his troops to Taiwan, it’s an expensive exercise and, in the end, he may not gain much. Instead, he gains more from a working relationship with China. But none of this has been explicitly said by America,” Venter said.

Trump is not Biden, who pursued hostility with China, including an offer to defend Taiwan in case of an attack by China.

Biden provoked China by sending former House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, a move China saw as a violation of the One-China Policy that the US endorsed.

ALSO READ: People, not politics, shape the Taiwan-China divide

However, anything that Trump says about the Taiwan office’s relocation would pose a challenge for South Africa, which is grappling with how to mend its strained relations with the US after it expelled ambassador Ebrahim Rasool.

In fact, relations were already at an all-time low after Trump accused Pretoria of violating the rights of privileged Afrikaners and grabbing land belonging to whites.

But South Africa’s decision on Taiwan is based on its understanding that the One-China principle is a basic norm in international relations and an established consensus.

I believe a single, united China would not only produce a strong economic powerhouse that benefits both, but would also end the tension in the Taiwan Strait and beyond, ensuring lasting peace in the region without the threat of war.