The rise in ungoverned areas poses enormous dangers to South Africa

It is said that every government decays, or erodes, its own legitimacy when it neglects the obvious things along with its two most important assets: its people and its territory.

It is people and territory that contribute to the sovereignty of the state. It is people that populate government departments, private business entities, the media, schools and hospitals, the tourist industry, the farming community and such like, and who promote and sell their skills and products across the territory.

It is people who drive the economy within the territory of the state and beyond and contribute to the wealth of a nation. It is people who enable a government to counter challenges such as food security, human security, water security and pollution.

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Ignoring people and territory comes at a high cost, especially when people believe or feel they are ignored, marginalised, regarded with contempt, or forgotten, and tracts of territory become depopulated due to a lack of security and economic opportunities.

The depopulation of rural areas results in the overpopulation of urban areas and strains essential services.

Disregarding the voice of the people, along with the inability to project competent governance across the territory, is indicative of a government that governs only for itself and at the expense of jeopardising its sovereignty.

Finding it impossible to sustain themselves economically, people from rural areas gravitate towards urban areas in the belief that they can create economic opportunities and advantages for themselves and their families.

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Rural depopulation also occurs due to uncontrolled criminal actions, drought, terrorism and land occupations.

Abandoning farming and rural areas creates uninhabited “black holes” that lie barren for whoever wishes to exploit them. It also creates overpopulated urban areas and slums, where both essential services and security are frequently in short supply or nonexistent.

Commonly referred to as ungoverned areas, these black holes can become breeding grounds for armed antigovernment forces (AGFs), as well as provide secure safe havens for both AGFs and criminal networks.

Urban areas, especially decayed inner city areas, slums and informal settlements devoid of government services are ideal breeding grounds for the creation of criminal networks and warlords, who exert their authority through fear and violence.

However, ungoverned areas do not only exist in rural or urban areas. They are also found on motorways and roads and bridges that connect rural and urban spaces. Even several of SA’s national key points can be viewed as ungoverned.

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These lawless areas fuel antigovernment sentiments that may ultimately manifest as violent protests and riots, including anarchy. They may also spill over into other areas where governance exists. But it is the collapse of law and order and governance in these spaces that ought to be of great concern to a responsible government.

Ungoverned areas are not only confined to land. They can extend to poorly controlled land and maritime borders, the cyber domain and air space.

A snapshot of South Africa clearly illustrates the rise and expansion of areas that can be termed ungoverned. Decayed inner cities, slums, informal settlements and even motorways have become areas of insecurity, lawlessness, violence and, at times, sabotage.

The large-scale armed criminal or terror attacks on farms, tourist centres, cash-in-transit vehicles and other road users is indicative of how easily these ungoverned areas can be created and how easily criminals or terrorists can withdraw to their safe havens after committing their crimes.

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They are also indicative of a lack of law and order and the impunity with which these forces can operate.

When people feel insecure, unsafe, persecuted or threatened by either the government or as a result of a lack of governance, or feel abandoned and marginalised, they will find ways to create their own secure and safe areas in which to live and work.

People, one of the most important assets to any state, will eventually tire of the inability of the government to provide essential services and will devise ways to ensure their safety and security.

Where the lack of governance and the exhaustion of people impacts on territory, people may eventually band together to ensure protection of their lands and other citizens.

But ungoverned spaces, dominated by AGFs and criminal networks, leave citizens with only two choices: change the government or establish their own protection units.

The former is done through the ballot box and the other through armed counteractions, the latter creating opportunities for extralegal actions.

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In a worst-case scenario, the people may rise up and violently overthrow a government. The apparent lack of governance and security and the subsequent rise in ungoverned areas poses enormous dangers to South Africa.

-Barlow is chair of Executive Outcomes