Stay or walk? The DA’s biggest political gamble yet

In 1996, FW de Klerk shocked all and sundry when he announced his party was walking away from Nelson Mandela’s government of national unity (GNU).

For a party that had been decisively defeated at the polls, his party had it good. Not only was he a deputy president, but his party was part of what was essentially a “government by consensus”, taking part in day-to-day governance.

But he chose to walk away. His reasons? “Continued participation in the GNU is equivalent to a death sentence… the survival of multiparty democracy depends on a strong and vibrant opposition and it is threatened by our continued participation in the GNU.”

The budget vote in parliament is presenting SA’s second-largest party in parliament, the DA, with an FW de Klerk GNU moment.

Does it stay and continue to govern by consensus, even when it is clear it does not agree with its largest partner, or does it walk away and strengthen democracy as a strong and vibrant opposition like it has been doing throughout its existence?

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The budget vote has become way more than about the value-added tax increase that the ANC is determined to push through, even to the extent of unravelling the GNU.

It is about the future of this country’s democracy itself.

One of the most fundamental mistakes that the DA made when it went into a partnership with the ANC was always threatening to walk away.

What that created was a window of opportunity for other opposition parties that initially chose to stay away from the GNU to offer themselves and their votes to the ANC when the DA threatens to walk away.

Had the DA gone into the GNU with a clear commitment to stay, even when the storms came, they would be sitting high on a pillar of public sympathy when the ANC chose to railroad it by negotiating with parties outside of the GNU in situations like the current budget impasse.

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Remember the early days when the DA Federal chair Helen Zille chose to communicate through public letters to ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula to expose what it thought the public would see as dishonest negotiations by the ANC?

At present, the ANC is confident enough to engage openly with the EFF and uMkhonto weSizwe party (MK), without considering the views of the DA. A public letter to Mbalula will not work any more because it played its strongest hand too early in the game.

There is a get-out-of-jail card for the DA but it will require some brinkmanship on its part.

Stay in the GNU but refuse to endorse the budget in its current form and wait to see if a deal is really put on the table by either the EFF or MK.

Should the two parties not accept the ANC’s terms, the DA will prevail.

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However, even if it does, the DA retains a moral advantage by stating: “We refused to endorse a budget that disadvantages the poor.”

A hung parliament that leaves the country in limbo does not work for everyone, the poor and the rich. Neither the DA, nor the ANC wants to go into campaigning on the back of a government that cannot do anything for citizens because they could not pass a budget.

A gun to the ANC’s head should have always been the DA’s last resort, not the go-to negotiating tactic. Whether it stays or walks away, it has now managed to work itself into a corner where it cannot win.

It walks away, it loses lose; it stays, it loses.