SA politics: A new era of excitement and uncertainty awaits in 2025

Next year is promising to be an interesting one on our political calendar. Nothing short of drama can be expected as two camps, one on the right and the other on the left, face off for dominance.

The fact that this year closed with so much tension at every level of our political discourse is indicative of what we should expect.

A dichotomy began to form even before the 29 May election and is set to strengthen.

The launch of Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party last December had an impact on our political landscape.

The party managed to tame the oldest political giant in Africa, the ANC, which had dominated the scene since 1994.

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That’s not the only cause of the ANC downturn. It was also the culmination of 30 years of electorate disgruntlement over unmet promised, endemic graft, unstoppable crime, high unemployment and deepening poverty and inequality.

Whether MK will continue to grow or regress remains to be seen, but the older folks – the ANC, DA and EFF – are sliding on a southbound trajectory.

The EFF lost its third spot to MK, which performed so well in its first election, in May, to become the official opposition in the National Assembly after the DA opted to relinquish the position in favour of sharing state power with the ANC and others.

MK’s 45% showing in KwaZulu-Natal was no surprise, but the results confirmed the fact that the province is an undisputed stronghold of MK founder Zuma.

A series of by-elections in Thabazimbi proved beyond doubt that Zuma has no support outside of KZN and the party, like the IFP, is a regional party.

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While the DA was the only party that experienced unbroken growth in every election for some time since its founding until recently, it also has reached a ceiling and the political stagnation that befell the ANC and the EFF in May.

The EFF underperformance coincided with the emergence of MK, which not only stole EFF electoral support, but also recruited its key leaders – including Floyd Shivambu, Dali Mpofu, Mzwanele Manyi and Busisiwe Mkhwebane.

This brings into question the survival of the post-May election anti-Ramaphosa left alliance between the two parties.

Clearly, the pact is under threat and their cooperation in parliament is doomed as they have become overnight enemies.

The biggest loser in the May election was the ANC, whose support dropped from 57% to just 40%, which forced it to enter into a power-sharing deal with the DA and others as part of a plan hatched by the Mineral Energy Industrial Complex alluded to by political analyst Xolani Dube.

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Significantly, the ANC is facing an internal revolt from its alliance partner, the South African Communist Party, for opting to align with the DA to form the GNU, instead of black parties.

The party undertook to contest the 2026 local government election independently, thereby competing with the ANC for votes.

This would be a further blow to the ANC as the constituency it shares with the SACP would be split similarly to the ANC voters who crossed over to MK in May.

The test for Ramaphosa is already in front of him – to sign or not to sign the remaining two clauses of the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act that he postponed will show where he stands.

If, on the one hand, he signs the Bill with the clauses, he will be accepted as a hero but if not, he will be doomed as an enemy of the revolution by the left. On the other hand, if he opts not to assent the Bill, he will be the darling of the right.

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