Ramaphosa’s strategy is to stall, not solve

The drubbing that the ANC took in last year’s election was arguably the most momentous event in South Africa’s democratic era. It left the country in a political impasse.

Barring a “black swan” event that unexpectedly upends everything, the country’s prospects over the coming year are entwined with the fate of the government of national unity (GNU).

But it doesn’t suffice for the GNU simply to survive. It has to thrive and reverse the terrible depredations exacted on the economy.

That, in turn, depends primarily on the ANC reconciling itself to the concessional nature of coalition politics. It means a willingness to compromise on its ideological fixations in the interests of the greater national good.

Unfortunately, there is no sign of this happening. While it is too weak to run the country as a minority government, the ANC is nevertheless powerful enough to hold the whip hand in a GNU where it is backed by a feeble array of centrist parties.

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Always hanging over the opposition participants in the GNU is the awareness that they share in the perks of governance at the ANC’s pleasure.

The ANC could instead form a GNU with the hard left parties, uMkhonto weSizwe party and the EFF.

President Cyril Ramaphosa continues to outfox his supposed partners at every turn.

The first test of the GNU’s ability to hammer out compromises on controversial legislation was the Basic Education Laws Amendment (Bela) Act, which was rejected by DA voters because of its erosion of parent-body influence on school governance and access to mothertongue tuition.

The DA initially warned the implementation of Bela, and the National Health Insurance (NHI) Act, were GNU deal-breaking issues.

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In light of this, the importance of the issue to opposition voters, the Bela Act became the first issue to test the willingness of the ANC to compromise.

However, through his canny management of the process, Ramaphosa has shown that he sees no need for compromise. He set up an ad hoc “clearing-house” mechanism to negotiate a deal on the contentious clauses.

In the meanwhile, Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube had embarked on separate negotiations on Bela with the trade union Solidarity, using Nedlac, the entity through which government, labour, business and community organisations try to settle their difference.

An agreement, which included some significant government concessions, was reached. But, in response to Cosatu’s and the SACP’s anger, Ramaphosa made it clear that any Nedlac deal was subordinate to the decision of clearing house.

The Nedlac arrangements were discarded. Instead, the Bela Act would be implemented in its entirety, but with Gwarube establishing “norms, standards and regulations” in regard to how the disputed clauses would work.

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What has in fact happened is that Ramaphosa has executed, again, the only executive manoeuvre that he has in six years at the helm shown any talent for: kicking the can down the road. This works well. It keeps the ANC in power without it having to make real concessions.

And, lacking real power in the GNU, the DA has no option but to put a brave face on it.

The next issue that Ramaphosa will try to finesse is the dismantling of private medical care as envisaged under the NHI Act.

This is a hill on which the DA has repeatedly pledged a willingness to die. Whether it will, remains to be seen.

In an ideal world, Ramaphosa would place the country’s interests first and back off from what would be a national disaster. He won’t, though. He’ll rely, probably assisted by the DA, on now kicking the NHI can down the road.

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