Picture: Gallo images
With pressure mounting on President Cyril Ramaphosa over the Phala Phala saga and calls for an early election if he steps down or is impeached, he is doing his best to gain consensus to stay on as the number one citizen.
This after the parliamentary Section 89 panel’s report released last Thursday concluded that he has a case to answer.
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With this report sending signals that he is not so innocent, he is at risk of losing his presidency and may find himself unable to contest for the party presidency in the elective conference in two weeks’ time if parliament votes for his impeachment process today.
But the big questions are: if Ramaphosa resigns, will ANC voters desert the party for the Democratic Alliance (DA) or any opposition party for that matter; and will the ANC voters believe the DA to be its messiah amid this ANC confusion?
The honest answer is clear: Ramaphosa has lost confidence among ordinary ANC voters and that was confirmed in the 2021 municipal elections.
Most people who still have confidence in the ANC are those who are benefitting from government, such as tenderpreuners. Ramaphosa is in a position where, if he continues to hold on to power until 2024, he will make the ANC lose its majority in government.
Although the Phala Phala scandal has tainted his image as an anti-corruption fighter, the ANC is unlikely to be hurt that much in terms of votes even if Ramaphosa were to resign before 2024.
And the DA will not necessarily gain votes from the ANC. It will still continue to be the official opposition party.
The only reason the DA improved its election results was not because voters have deserted the ANC in large numbers. It is because ANC voters stayed away during the 2021 local polls. Therefore, it will be futile for the DA to try to woo ANC voters – particularly black people, who still identify with the liberation movement.
Even during the municipal polls, the ANC came out tops in most municipalities and the DA is only governing the metros as a result of coalitions. They were not given the mandate to govern.
So, an early election would not bring different results for the DA, which is still viewed as a party which does not represent the aspiration of most black people.
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The handling of the Soweto power crisis by its Joburg mayor Dr Mpho Phalatse – who seemed not to care for the residents but was like an Eskom representative – is a typical example.
Hence, it will take a lot of time for the DA to gain support from most black people. But it’s not all gloom and doom for the DA. The party needs to strengthen relationships with other parties and stop its arrogance of ridiculing and undermining them.
For example, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) helped the party regain the Ekurhuleni mayorship, but the DA continues to dismiss the party as a coalition partner.
That’s why blacks who may desert the ANC would rather support other parties such as the EFF, ActionSA, Patriotic Alliance, Inkatha Freedom Party and African Transformation Movement – or stay away from the polls.
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