Ramaphosa knows the ANC is a cruel master

He is a trusted companion and protector. Or an indulged lapdog? He’s a valued, noble steed. Or a broken beast of burden?

If Cyril Ramaphosa were a domestic animal, he should be eyeing any visit from the local vet with trepidation.

For he knows the ANC is a cruel master. It works its creatures hard.

When a scapegoat is needed, it’s not the gentle exit of being put to pasture. It’s the swift stroke of a savage blade across an exposed throat.

Ask Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma. But Ramaphosa’s presidency may survive until at least next year’s general election. All he has to do is avoid pre-electoral disaster.

On the one hand, he must keep the various vying factions of the party from one another’s throats.

On the other, he must keep at bay the threatening clouds of the Phala Phala scandal. In theory, there’s nothing wrong with this strategy.

The problem, however, is Ramaphosa himself and the centrifugal forces growing within the party. The president has long been out of sorts and is flagging.

His emphatic victory at the leadership conference has failed to invigorate him.

His notorious reluctance to take decisions has slowed to the point of paralysis. He seems not to be paying attention to his presidential responsibilities.

A case in point is the hot potato of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for Russia President Vladimir Putin.

In August, he is scheduled to attend a BRICS summit to be chaired and hosted by South Africa. He is also a valued ally and financial patron of the ANC.

So, one would have thought Ramaphosa would be keenly aware of the legal and reputational risks involved in exercising, or not, the warrant. It seems not.

Last week, sharing a platform with the Finnish president, Ramaphosa made the unscripted announcement that SA would withdraw from the ICC because of its bias in prosecuting those accused of war crimes. Confusion reigned.

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Just three months ago, the ANC pledged support for remaining in the ICC. A subsequent “clarification” by the presidency reaffirmed SA’s continuing membership, blaming communication “errors” by the party and the president.

As is inevitable whenever there is a leadership void, rivals are circling. One of them is Fikile Mbalula, it would seem.

The ANC secretary-general has recently publicly chided Ramaphosa, as if speaking to an errant child.

Following last month’s Cabinet reshuffle, there’s been, as widely predicted, much squabbling over turf between the three ministers who now each have some form of oversight of Eskom.

Ramaphosa, in contrast, says the ministerial triumvirate “work very well together”. Mbalula is having nothing of that.

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“The president can’t allow… a fallout… We expect the president to run his Cabinet. Not his Cabinet running itself. If he’s got a problem with that, we will have a problem with him.”

Similarly, he panned Ramaphosa over the dispute between Higher Education Minister Blade Nzimande and his deputy over who gets the media spotlight.

“Why is he having a problem of ministers running amok?” Ramaphosa was the “chief executive officer of the country… [which] cannot be projected to be leaderless”.

Such harsh, unvarnished words directed at his leader and the nation’s president may signal that Mbalula has personal ambitions of one day occupying the highest office.

Alternatively, since he has always been alert to subtle shifts in the prevailing political winds, he may simply be preparing to hitch his wagon to a stronger, new team.

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As a successful cattle farmer in his spare time, Ramaphosa will know that if the latter happens, unlike with a treasured pet, the old bull either goes to stud or the slaughterhouse.

There’s no euthanasia for political animals.